After a few months of violent smashing, the United States and Europe suddenly came to a break. The trade war is a bonfire, and it seems that it has turned into a fireworks. Many people also exclaimed: The United States, Europe and Japan have to engage in a new zero-tariff group. The WTO has reached the most dangerous level. Is a new trading system to be established? !
(One)
Sure enough, Trump!
The day before, Trump also took the EU's blood sprinkler.
On July 24th, when speaking in Kansas City, Missouri, Trump said: What the EU is doing to us is incredible, too bad. They made $151 billion last year. This is our EU Trade deficit. They seem to be good and good, but they are rude.
In other words, the EU is too rude, it has always been the oil of our United States, how do you so lick our American oil?
But one day later, Trump seemed to turn 180 degrees.
He boasted that the meeting with European Commission President Juncker was "very warm." He also posted a photo of Junker’s “Veneer†on Twitter, saying: “It’s obvious that the EU represented by Junck and the United States you represent really love each other!â€
It turned out that this is true love. The day before seems to be a yellow-faced woman, and the next day becomes sweet. It’s a couple of joys and sorrows.
The US-European trade war does not seem to be playing. Trump said: We agree today. First of all, we must work together on zero tariffs, zero non-tariff barriers and zero subsidies for non-automotive industrial products. We will also reduce barriers to services, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, medical products, and soybeans, and increase trade in these industries. â€
Please note that zero tariffs, zero barriers, and zero subsidies are sounding refreshing.
In particular, Trump is proud that the EU has agreed to import more LNG and soybeans. Trump said this: We signed a big soybean order, the EU will start to act, act now, buy a lot of soybeans.
You know, for the sake of soybeans, Trump has been very anxious recently, and even has to introduce $12 billion in subsidies. Now, the EU has finally received orders.
After a few months of violent smashing, the United States and Europe suddenly came to a break. The trade war is a bonfire, and it seems that it has turned into a fireworks. Many people also exclaimed: The United States, Europe and Japan have to engage in a new zero-tariff group. The WTO has reached the most dangerous level. Is a new trading system to be established? !
It’s not that we don’t understand, it’s that the world is changing too fast!
Many friends are very worried. The United States and Europe are confluent. Some words seem to contain innuendo against China, which will inevitably affect the Sino-US economic and trade game. In particular, soybeans, originally imposed on China’s tariff counterattacks, have made Trump under great pressure, but the EU is now Suddenly releasing water, Trump is inevitably more fearless.
This actually shows the embarrassment of this trade war. There is a mystery behind the mysterious machine. In the view of the cow playing the piano, there are several meaningful observation points:
1. This is the full expression of Trump's “art of tradingâ€. For the sake of profit, Trump can not recognize the six parents, saying that turning his face will turn his face, even if it is the EU, it is an ally and an enemy; in order to force the other party to make concessions, Trump is better at extreme pressure, including claiming to impose tariffs on the car, which made the EU once In the end, Trump was in trouble with the fish, and he was proud of it and announced an agreement.
2. The EU is a bit soft, but there are pits in the soft. Compared to Trump's aggressive strength, the EU is indeed quite passive and soft. In the end, more is to compromise with Trump. Of course, Trump is also not too happy, the EU is soft, and it feels more stable to Trump. The Wall Street Journal commented that the EU has 28 member states. It is not easy to reach a consensus. Juncker is committed to buying US soybeans and liquefied gas, but he has no way to instruct EU companies to do so. In other words, there is still talk in Europe and America.
3, there is a foresight of the car, may not turn face again. The British "Guardian" commented that Trump is not a reliable negotiating object. Don't forget, China and the United States have reached a consensus twice, but in the end, the United States turned to face. In addition, the EU is committed to buying more liquefied natural gas, but the distance and mode of transportation determine the price of liquefied petroleum gas in the United States. It is much higher than the Russian pipeline natural gas. Will the EU do the loss trading? If the progress is slow, it will not rule out that Trump will turn his face again and yell at the EU. The EU is either self-sufficient or can only fight back.
In a word, the trade war between Europe and the United States is only a surface pause. Both sides are also looking for steps. The tariff on steel and aluminum has not actually stopped. It is not ruled out that the final negotiations have broken down. The two sides have set off their sleeves.
Anyway, this game, for Trump, is really nothing new.
(two)
The situation is changing .
For China, we must strive for the best results, but we must also prepare for the worst. We can neither be too optimistic and take it lightly, nor can we be too pessimistic and lose confidence.
In the view of the cow playing the piano, three must:
It must be noted that the agreement between the United States and Europe is a high probability. There is no winner in the trade war. Even if it is once warned, it will eventually cease to be a fire, because the result of both losses is meaningless. The political weakness of the EU and Japan and their dependence on the United States in the military have determined that these Western countries are likely to compromise with the United States, or to temporarily stabilize Trump by doing anything with a temporary compromise.
It must be noted that the US-European reconciliation also has no intention of dealing with China. This does not negate the fact that the rapid economic growth after China's accession to the WTO has caused the Western countries to multiply their sense of crisis. They want to cooperate with China to obtain greater benefits, and they want to contain China's development through various means. This is the common view of many Westerners. . This is evident from the fact that many Western countries violate the rules and refuse to recognize China as a market economy. China must of course unite all countries that can be united, but must also be wary of conspiracy attempts by certain countries.
It must also be noted that China is not an ordinary country after all. China is no longer China 40 years ago, and China is not China 100 years ago. China is the second largest economy in the world today and the world's largest trading nation. China's huge domestic demand market is the biggest confidence of the Chinese game. If the trade war continues, China will not be able to suffer major losses; but for the United States, it is also a "selling of one thousand self-destruction of eight hundred". What's more, once the huge Chinese market is lost, it will be troublesome for Western companies to recover.
This is an unprecedented test, including the price of the sky, the repayment of money on the spot, the combination of vertical and horizontal, and the bridge of the river. Still the same sentence: there is no eternal friend, no eternal enemy, only eternal national interests.
But the crisis is more dangerous.
In the past 40 years, the most serious crisis period, there is no doubt that in the early 1990s, the Western sanctions were severely imposed, and the Chinese economy was once in jeopardy. But the new round of reform and opening up began from that time and enabled the Chinese economy to realize the Phoenix. Nirvana. In the end, the United States is afraid of making in China and looking for various excuses.
Reform is a revolution, and it is still difficult to touch the interests than to touch the soul. From the most optimistic point of view, there is no pressure to breathe, there is no power to break the wrist. Again, the implementation of larger-scale reforms and opening up is our best gift for the 40th anniversary of reform and opening up, and it is our greatest magic weapon to win this trade war.
If this is the result, it may be that Trump never imagined. After 5 years and 10 years, we may really want to thank Trump.
Of course, many Western media have also been surprised to find that the US-European agreement has a somewhat "weird similarity" with the previous Sino-US agreement. Trump wants to break up the EU, it is an open secret. Many people are betting: Trump, when are you going to tear it up this time!
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