The March aluminum price on the London Metal Exchange fell below the 2,700-point integer mark, and the technical pattern has been broken. If the aluminum price could not return above 2700 tonight, it could reach a level of 2500 in the later period. Alumina prices continue to decline, aggravating trader's concerns about aluminum prices. From the analysis of global alumina market, after a large number of gaps in 2005, this year will be gradually surplus. In the coming period, the pressure of oversupply of alumina will increase. The domestic alumina production has also grown relatively quickly, and inventory has also shown a continuous upward trend. If the alumina prices continue to fall in the later period, aluminum prices may still fall again. Now that Alcoa's workers contract expires, it will become a bullish subject for the aluminum market. If the labor and management parties fail to reach an agreement, it will boost aluminum prices.
Domestic aluminum spot prices performed significantly better than futures prices. In Guangdong, the seller's attitude of reluctant sellers led to a very limited fall in spot aluminum prices. However, in the futures market, the fall in prices caused a bullish sell-off. Shanghai August Aluminum's August contract once reached the limit price. We infer that if the price of aluminium further falls in the later period, the seller’s mentality will change, and the spot aluminum price will fall sharply, which will have a very negative impact on the futures price. In the current situation, we no longer think that doing more aluminum is a good trading strategy.
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