Last week, the non-ferrous metals market was once again turbulent and the market was expected to be disordered. The author believes that the global economic situation will not change much in the short term. An appropriate slowdown in the economy will prompt the metal market to return to the supply and demand side. Copper labor negotiations and the short supply of aluminum will all support the market in the near term. The important factor is that the copper future aluminum will continue to rise strongly next week. Last Tuesday, the United States announced newer data that the rate of housing starts fell by 6.0% in August, and the annual rate was 1.665 million, which was the lowest level since April 2003. At the same time, the monthly PPI rose by 0.1%, and the core PPI fell by 0.4%. The slowdown in economic growth and moderate inflation data kept the Fed keeping its benchmark interest rate unchanged. The author believes that the combination of economic slowdown and moderate inflation data will be beneficial to the commodity market over the long term, because if inflationary pressures are indeed suppressed, a sustained slowdown in economic growth may cause the Fed to start lowering interest rates, thus promoting the economy. Growth will increase again. In addition, the IMF recently released a global economic outlook, increasing the global economic growth rate in 2006 from 4.8% to 5.1%, while the growth rate in 2007 remained unchanged at 4.7%. The stable and balanced global economic growth remains a solid foundation for the commodity market, and the key to determining the trend of copper prices is still supply and demand. Copper market brewing strong rise BHP Billiton’s Spence copper mine will begin labor negotiations next Tuesday and the strike is tentatively scheduled for 26 days. Although the strike is still undecided and even if the strike is expected to end soon, it is important to stimulate the market. The impact of the previous strikes did not lie in the real loss of production, but the market's fear of supply interruptions supported copper prices. In the case of Codelco, a Chilean state-owned copper company, the total copper mine capacity due to its labor contracts in October will reach 600,000 tons, while the total capacity of copper mines and smelters that will expire in December will be 1.56 million tons. The supply of copper concentrate still has a big gap. The new TC/RC reached between Escondida and a Chinese smelter is 73 (US$/ton)/7.3 (US cents/lb), and the TC/RC cost has dropped sharply. It highlights the tension in copper supply. Therefore, the contradiction between supply and demand in the fourth quarter of 2006 is still a strong support for copper, and each strike and labor negotiation may lead the copper futures. From the perspective of the structure of the market back, the spot price of LME for the March period has been consistently low since the end of August, even hitting a spot-to-month premium of $7 for the March period. In the recent week, the rise in premium from US$11 to US$42, and the high spot premium is a direct reflection of market tensions. Also concerned about the new positions of CFTC data, short-term re-entry into the short, the fund short positions increased by 7937 hand, while long positions only slightly increased by 1289 hand, long and short power again. In this regard, I do not believe that the fund short is a sign that the price of copper will decline. Since speculative short positions reached a record high of 11,180 lots at the end of August, the price of copper was not affected at all. Instead, it was challenged by the new wave of speculative funds in early September to challenge the US$8,000/ton mark. Despite the disparity in the strength of long and short, but compared to the previous short-term reduction of 6,000 hands, the clearance was 4394, we are more willing to see a substantial increase in positions. Because this is a manifestation of market sentiment, the time when the long and short sides launched a contest is the moment when copper will show its true energy. On the domestic front, stocks of the Shanghai Stock Exchange continued to decline under the spur of demand and fell again by 1,925 tons this week. The current level of domestic stocks is at the same level as the low level in mid-May. The strong demand from the pre-sales warehouses of the festival strongly supported the domestic copper prices, mainly in two aspects: on the one hand, the spot premium remained at a high level relative to the previous period, and the sellers showed a certain amount of reluctant sellers, while the buyers were active and started to buy on the bargain. Stock-taking --- 350 yuan per day on the previous trading day; On the other hand, the market reversal structure has become increasingly significant, and the monthly price difference in recent months has continued to increase, and it has remained at a high level in the near future. Reflects the tight supply of domestic supply to the near-month contract. The ratio of Shanghai to London has recovered to near the level of balance of imports and losses under the stimuli of demand, and it is expected that consumer buying will become more prosperous next few days next to the National Day. The aluminum market can continue to rise The eyes of the closer domestic investors have mostly focused on the aluminum spot market. The tension in the spot market led to the high price of aluminum spot prices, which in turn formed a huge support for aluminum futures prices. The continuation of the tension in the spot market has also become an important indicator to determine the future price trend. The major factors causing the recent spot market tension are the domestic booming consumption of aluminum products and the substantial increase in exports of primary aluminum and processed aluminum products. Since there will not be major changes in the domestic economic growth in the short term, the domestic aluminum product consumption will have a certain degree of rigidity in the short term. It is expected that the domestic aluminum product consumption will continue to boom, which will in turn lead to an increase in the number of primary aluminum orders. In terms of exports of primary aluminum and processed aluminum products, the major uncertainties affecting the export of aluminum processed products have been determined. The smaller reduction in exports of aluminum processed products is not enough to have a significant impact on the increase in exports of aluminum processed products. On the contrary, in the short term, it may promote the increase of orders for primary aluminum of aluminum-processing companies. As for the export of primary aluminum, because according to the current domestic and international prices, the primary aluminum export will cause losses, which will have a huge impact on the export of primary aluminum, but due to the large number of already signed export contracts, the primary aluminum Exports will not change too much. In this case, the factors that led to the tight spot still exist. The recent changes in primary aluminum production are modest. It is expected that the tight spot market for aluminum will likely continue. In addition, aluminum producers now have huge short-selling positions. Due to the tight spot market bullishness and the sharp reduction in tax rebates for export tax rebates, these manufacturers have a lot of pressure to close their positions. The recent high spread between contracts has resulted in greater shift costs. This has also led to difficulties in shifting the hedged positions. It is expected that the hedged positions of the manufacturers will be gradually closed. This will, to a considerable extent, be conducive to the rise in aluminum prices. Internationally, according to the newly released data of WBMS, the global aluminum market gap from January to July significantly expanded from 8.7 million tons to 29.6 million tons. In addition LME's aluminum inventory is also in a continuous decline. Taking into account the situation in the international and domestic markets, the possibility of aluminum prices continuing to rise is even greater.