The impact of various regulatory measures on the commodity market cannot be ignored. If supply and demand are the fundamental factors determining the trend of commodity prices, liquidity is the driving force behind commodity growth, and policy regulation has played a more important role as a market stabilizer. Of course, at a time when the inflation situation is more severe, whether it is at the monetary level, the industrial level or the circulation reserve level, regulation and control is more of a kind of pressure on the commodity. Monetary policy: tight capital for short-selling commodities Due to high CPI and domestic inflationary pressures, the central bank has tightened the deposit reserve and interest rate hikes to tighten liquidity in the domestic market. The market clearly feels the pressure of shortage of funds. Cinda Futures believes that due to the arduous domestic anti-inflationary pressure in June and the tighter monetary policy expectations, these factors will have a restraining effect on the domestic commodity market until the first half of the third quarter. China Merchants Futures believes that stable price and price growth is the primary goal set by the government at the beginning of the year. Before the second or third quarter, the probability of a slowdown in the monetary tightening policy is very small. Therefore, the pressure on commodities is hard to be clearly resolved at least during this period. However, the time-lag effect of monetary policy will lead to contraction in the second half of the year, and growth will slow down; the economies of the three major economies in the US, Europe and Japan will be sluggish, and the slowdown in demand for Chinese products will lead to a decline in export growth. Negative Effects. By the third quarter, the effects of regulation and control policies are expected to emerge, and the government may slow down the pace of regulation and control, which is expected to ease the financial pressure on the market. At that time, commodity longs may get a breather. Xinhu Futures believes that the central bank's continuous high-pressure regulation under the background of inflation makes the production enterprises in the industrial chain face greater financial pressure, which makes the process of destocking of the commodity market slow down, but the policy adjustment has not changed the overall operation trend. The market remains cautiously optimistic. Industrial policy: The impact of industrial products is obvious Industrial policies have an impact on industrial products. For example, since the beginning of this year, the state has frequently adopted policies on the aluminum industry. First, in early April, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the four major binding indicators for the “12th Five-Year Plan†period and this year’s industrial energy-saving and emission reduction in China, which are all more stringent than last year; After that, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission and other nine ministries jointly called for the “70 billion proposed electrolytic aluminum project†to curb overcapacity and redundant construction in the aluminum industry. In May, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the “Outdated Production Capacity in 2011†on its website. Target Mission, in which the electrolytic aluminum industry will phase out 600,000 tons of backward production capacity this year, an increase of 61.72% compared with last year; in addition, it also includes “limited power production†and “electricity price increase†brought by “electricity shortageâ€. And many other policy actions. Most of these initiatives focus on energy conservation and emission reduction and control of production capacity. They are a good way to alleviate excess pressure and improve fundamentals. Aluminum prices will also benefit. It is worth mentioning that this year's "electricity shortage" theme has also become a hot spot in the aluminum market. If the scope of summer power cuts is widened, the pressure on the metal industry will be even heavier. State Reserve Regulation: Agricultural Product Price Stabilizer The country has made the market more stable through the blending of commodity reserves, especially in the agricultural products such as soybean oil, corn and sugar. Taking corn as an example, in the case of severe domestic inflation, a series of policies have been issued for the deep processing industry before the Spring Festival and the first half of the year. The policy-based negatives that need to be guarded in the second half of the year are similar to the environmental protection measures before and after the 2008 Olympic Games. This form has the greatest lethal effect on deep processing consumption. Once the corn price rises excessively, this possibility is not ruled out. According to Xinhu Futures, the price of cotton in the United States is very high and the land competition is fierce. In order to increase market supply, the United States has released a large amount of land. In this way, while cotton and corn plantings have increased, soybeans have basically maintained their original levels. This move has eased the supply situation of agricultural products that were originally on the warning line, and the market in 2011/2012 is also in a moderate state.
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