As the final day of March approaches, attention is turning to China's first-quarter macroeconomic data, which is expected to be released in mid-April. Analysts and experts interviewed by reporters suggest that the economic performance for the first quarter of 2014 was generally weak, but its impact on the full-year growth is limited. With ongoing reforms and policy adjustments, China's economy is expected to stabilize and eventually rebound in the coming months.
Many economists anticipate that the GDP growth rate for Q1 will fall around 7.2%, marking one of the weakest quarters since 2009. Wang Jun, deputy director of the China International Economic Exchange Center, noted that early signs from investment, consumption, and industrial data point to a "downward jump." He estimates that the GDP growth could range between 7.2% and 7.3%, with CPI likely remaining near 2.5% and the PMI expected to decline further in March.
Guo Tianyong, director of the China Banking Research Center at Central University of Finance and Economics, also believes that the first-quarter growth will not be strong. He explained that the current economic adjustment period has led to lower growth and price levels. Dong Dengxin from Wuhan University of Science and Technology echoed this sentiment, stating that while the first-quarter data may be weak, it is not indicative of long-term trends. He pointed out that seasonal factors and the transition from 2013 to 2014 have influenced the numbers, and the quarter’s performance is unlikely to significantly affect the overall economic trajectory for the year.
Guo added that the focus is shifting from pure growth to quality and efficiency, which supports structural reforms and long-term sustainable development. Dong also emphasized that maintaining a 7% growth rate this year is achievable, with the economy expected to remain stable without major fluctuations, supporting the reform process.
Ma Yao, a macroeconomic researcher at China Investment Consulting, highlighted that the first-quarter data did not meet expectations. Exports declined, PPI fell, and the PMI showed weakness, indicating signs of tightening. While inflationary pressures still exist, the real economy's underperformance is expected given the early stage of policy implementation. However, with upcoming major investment projects, the macroeconomy is anticipated to gradually improve in the following quarters.
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