Crude oil wholesale price falls profit

The latest report released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that in December 2012, crude oil production in the oil-producing country Saudi Arabia unexpectedly decreased, and the decrease in Saudi crude oil production caused the crude oil price of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to appear for four months. The first rise. The New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) crude oil ** main contract has seen a wave of gains since mid-December last year and is currently at a high of nearly three months. Despite this, the sluggish market will lead to a steady decline in the domestic wholesale price of refined oil products. As a result, the wholesale price has a certain spread compared with the average retail price, which allows the gas station to make more profit from it.

OPEC crude oil price rose to 108 US dollars last year, crude oil production Saudi Arabia's crude oil production unexpectedly fell, and led the OPEC market crude oil prices rose for the first time in four months. According to the data, Saudi crude oil production in December last year was 9.025 million barrels per day, which was 500,000 barrels per day lower than last November, and was 1.1 million barrels per day lower than last year's April and June output. It was Saudi Arabia since 2009. The largest single monthly output reduction since January.

The reduction in crude oil production in Saudi Arabia immediately brought OPEC crude oil prices. The average price of crude oil in the OPEC market supervision group rose slightly during the month from December 13 last year to January 13, 2013 to 108.77 US dollars per barrel, up 2.22 US dollars from the previous month, an increase of 2.08%, which is OPEC Monthly market supervision crude oil prices rose for the first time in four months.

According to analyst Li Yan of Longzhong Petrochemical Network, Saudi Arabia’s production decline as the top oil producer in OPEC once caused speculation that Saudi Arabia intends to maintain high prices. However, the current Brent oil price fluctuates around $110, which is much higher than OPEC's expectation of $100, so the possibility of price protection is relatively small. At present, shale oil production in the United States continues to increase, reducing the dependence on Saudi oil in some regions. At the same time, weak global demand continues to constrain consumption. This may be the main reason for the decline in crude oil production in Saudi Arabia.

Expected:

The change in the crude oil price of the three places, NYMEX crude oil, fell slightly after the unsuccessful impact of 95 US dollars. It is currently hovering around 93 US dollars, which is still the highest point in nearly three months. The main contract of Brent crude oil** recently rushed to 112.34 US dollars/barrel and fell back to 109 to 110 US dollars.

Due to the recent surge in international oil prices, the average price of crude oil in the three places began to change from negative to positive. Statistics from Longzhong Petrochemical Network show that as of January 15, the average price of crude oil in Xinta, Brent and Dubai was US$108.52. / barrel, compared with the benchmark price adjustment on November 15 last year rose 0.12%.

For the market, Zhuo Chuang, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang, believes that in the short term, the news has faced weakening market influence, the crude oil market has gradually turned to fundamentals, global economic growth is still facing downward pressure, and it is bound to suppress oil demand, and oil supply is relatively sufficient. Under the influence of fundamentals of supply and demand, international oil prices will continue to fluctuate and decline in the short term.

According to Zhuo Chuang information and data monitoring, the rate of change in the three regions will continue to rise in the short term, however, if the international oil prices continue to fluctuate and decline in recent days, the average price of crude oil in the three places will fluctuate lower, and it is expected that the rate of change in the three regions will decrease in the later period. Narrow, the market is expected to be weaker. However, if the recent international oil price rises oscillatingly, the average price of crude oil in the three places will oscillate upward, and the increase will be within 5 US dollars per barrel. It is expected that the rate of change in the three regions will maintain the upward trend in the future, and the fastest will rise in mid-February. 4%, then increase the window or open. Therefore, the price adjustment window for refined oil products before the Spring Festival should be closed, and if the increase in crude oil is limited, there is still a change in the opening up window after the Spring Festival.

Industry analysis:

Affected by the demand, the wholesale price of refined oil remained steady down. Domestically, there was no bad news and good news in the domestic refined oil consumer market. The transaction atmosphere was slightly light. The main reason is that “Tiangong does not work for the United States”. After experiencing rain and snow in a large area of ​​the country, the heavy fog and haze again spread to most markets in the Middle East this week. The transportation is not smooth, resulting in a decrease in market resource flow efficiency and a decrease in market transactions. .

The sluggish market led to a steady decline in the domestic wholesale price of refined oil products. As of January 16, the average price of domestic gasoline and diesel, the main domestic unit of Zhongyu Information Monitoring, was 9471 yuan per ton for No. 93 gasoline and 8373 yuan per ton for No. 0 diesel. The average retail sales price is 508 yuan/tonne and 388 yuan/tonne.

However, this situation may change in the near future. Gao Chengsha, an information analyst at Zhongyu, predicts that the relevant weather forecast shows that in the next few days, large-scale haze will continue to weaken and end for several days. At that time, the relevant restricted high-speed road sections will resume smooth flow and all parties will return to normal transportation. This news may boost the trading volume of the oil market and speed up the flow of resources.