Given the current power-restricted situation and the stage of development of the industry, the myth of the explosive growth of the wind power industry from 2005 to 2009 has been shattered. However, after two years of industrial downturn, can the wind power manufacturing industry emerge from the cold winter in 2013 in the context of improving investment environment and intensifying industry reshuffle?
According to data from the National Energy Administration, the installed capacity of new wind power is expected to reach 18 GW in 2013, which is 50% more than that in 2012.
At the same time, the State Council issued 104 catalogues of cancellation and decentralization of administrative examination and approval projects, including the devolution of approval authority for wind power projects to local investment authorities. It is understood that in order to curb local investment impulses and gradually absorb production capacity, the state recovered wind power project approval rights two years ago. Decentralizing wind power approval right now, in the view of the industry, may form an incentive for investment in wind power projects, so that previously suppressed market demand will gradually be released.
Therefore, analysts believe that in 2013, the wind power industry saw a clearing trend in the bottoming out. At the same time, fan order prices also showed signs of bottoming out. The increase in revenue and gross profit margin will drive the recovery of the performance of wind turbine manufacturing companies, and the leading companies in the industry will have domestic wind power in 2013. Reaping the full benefit from the resumption of growth, it will boost the sales of wind turbines by 20% to 25%.
However, the outlook may not be so optimistic. In my opinion, the current power companies are facing financial difficulties, most of the projects can not be started, the project construction progress is slow. The problem of adding the upper limit of electricity has not been fundamentally solved. Therefore, it is still unknown whether the Energy Administration will propose how much the target of 18 GW can actually be achieved.
In addition, despite the slight increase in orders from wind turbines in 2012, the lack of demand in the midstream and downstream industries has caused many manufacturing companies to reflect orders, but actual shipments have not significantly increased.
Therefore, the overall recovery of the wind power industry is still not optimistic. Cai Hesheng, secretary general of the Wind Energy Equipment Branch of the China Agricultural Machinery Industry Association, predicts that at least 10% of companies in the wind power industry will completely withdraw from the market.
Recalling the prosperity and desolateness of China's wind power market, the fundamental reason is that China’s wind power has “abandoned wind and limited power supply†and the situation of overcapacity is severe.
The nature of the company's profit-making has made it impossible for it to take into account the sound development of the entire industry. Once the approval authority for wind power is decentralized, the speed of project approval and construction progress will accelerate, which may cause wind power projects to surface quickly.
The data shows that at present, the general operating rate of complete wind turbines and parts manufacturing enterprises in China is insufficient, and the actual operating rate of production lines is only about 60%. In other words, if the wind power industry lacks unified planning and effective supervision, under the background of rapid implementation of wind power projects, the problem of overcapacity in China's wind power industry will further intensify, laying a hidden danger for the entire industry.
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