Abstract In the first half of 2014, China imported 46,000 tons of polysilicon, an increase of 17.4% over the same period last year. 84% of them come from three exporting countries: the United States (21.8%), South Korea (30.0%), and Germany (32.6%). Although China announced in January this year...
In the first half of 2014, China imported 46,000 tons of polysilicon, an increase of 17.4% over the same period last year. 84% of them come from three exporting countries: the United States (21.8%), South Korea (30.0%), and Germany (32.6%). Although China announced in January this year that it would impose punitive tariffs on polysilicon imported from the United States and South Korea, in reality, almost all of the polysilicon that these two countries export to China are processed through processing (processing or processing). The channel avoided tariffs. China also announced high anti-dumping and countervailing duty rates on polysilicon produced in the EU at the end of April this year, but Wacker, the only large polysilicon producer in Europe, reached an agreement with the Chinese government. The agreement stipulates that punitive tariffs may be waived as long as the price of WACKER's polysilicon exported to China is not less than a specified value. Although this minimum price has not been officially announced, BNEF expects it to be around $23/kg. In the first half of 2014, the price of polysilicon stabilized at 21-22 USD/kg. BNEF expects the average price of polysilicon to rise to over US$23/kg in the second half of the year as the downstream market rises. Therefore, the minimum price limit for WACKER does not effectively limit its exports in China.
On the whole, the polysilicon trade survey that the Chinese government has started in 2012 has not imposed restrictions on the exports of the three major countries, and the future polysilicon imports are still determined by market demand. We expect China's total imports of polysilicon to reach 10-10.5 million tons in 2014, an increase of 25-30% compared with last year.
BNEF expects China's self-produced polysilicon to reach 11-12 million tons in 2014, an increase of 34-46% compared with 2013. 90-95% of them come from five manufacturers: Poly GCL, Special Change, Luoyang Zhongsi, Daquan, and Qihui. In 2014, China will supply 21 to 22 tons of polysilicon, which can be used to produce 39-40 GW of polysilicon wafers.
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