Abstract In the first half of 2014, the economic operation of the machine tool industry showed a “low level stabilityâ€. Although the government has increased its policy of stabilizing growth and responding to economic downturn since the second quarter, structural adjustments in the domestic market demand, the international market...
In the first half of 2014, the economic operation of the machine tool industry showed a “low level stabilityâ€. Although the government has increased its policy of stabilizing growth and responding to economic downturn since the second quarter, there have been multiple adjustments in domestic market demand, slow recovery of international market demand, increased competition for imported goods, severe lack of liquidity, and long-term deterioration of financial conditions. The comprehensive impact of unfavorable factors, business difficulties and potential risks, the operating pressure of the industry is still very large. First, the growth rate of the whole industry declined
According to the economic operation data of the National Bureau of Statistics from January to June 2014, the main business income of metal processing machine tools increased by 8.7% year-on-year, metal cutting machine tools increased by 6.4%, and metal forming machine tools increased by 13.3%. Compared with the first quarter, it changed by -0.5, -1.3 and 1 percentage point respectively.
According to the statistics of the machine tool association's key contact network, the sales revenue of all enterprises in the first six months of 2014 decreased by 2.6%. Among them, metal cutting machine tool product sales revenue decreased by 7.7% year-on-year; metal forming machine tool product sales revenue increased by 4.3%.
Second, the quality of the entire industry is declining
1. Financial status is not optimistic According to the calculation of economic operation data of the National Bureau of Statistics from January to June 2014, the profit rate, accounts receivable turnover rate and asset-liability ratio of the main business of the whole industry are 5.5%, 4.6 and 54.1%, respectively; The three indicators of metal cutting machine tools are 3%, 2.7 and 62.6% respectively; the three indicators of metal forming machine tools are 5.8%, 4.2 and 54.3% respectively.
From the above data, the profit rate of the main business of the whole industry is lower than the one-year lending rate. The gold cutting machine tool industry is even lower than the one-year time deposit rate, which reflects the serious decline in the profitability of the industry. The turnover rate of accounts receivable of the whole industry, metal cutting machine tools and metal forming machine tools decreased by 0.2, 0.2 and flat respectively compared with the same period of last year, reflecting the deterioration of liquidity. The asset-liability ratio is close to and exceeds 60%, and financial risks are increasing.
2. The loss continued and the situation was grim. The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the economic data of January-June 2014 reflected that the loss-making enterprises in the whole industry accounted for 13.8%, and the losses of China's holding companies accounted for 41.8%. Among the eight sub-sectors, the largest loss is metal cutting machine tools, accounting for 24.7% of loss-making enterprises, and its holdings in China accounted for 50.8% of losses.
From January to June 2014, the loss-making enterprises in the key contact network of the Machine Tool Association accounted for 38%, of which 45.5% were gold cutting machines and 18.2% were forming machines. Compared with the previous month, it increased by 2.3 and 2.2 percentage points respectively.
Third, exports have grown steadily
According to customs statistics, the export value of machine tools and tools for the first six months of 2014 was US$ 5.28 billion, an increase of 18.5% year-on-year, an increase of 7.4 percentage points over the same period last year. In the context of the continued sluggish demand in the domestic market and the decline in production and operation of enterprises, exports in the first half of 2014 showed steady growth. Opening up overseas markets and strengthening exports are becoming important breakthroughs in resolving excess capacity and realizing industrial transformation and upgrading.
From the perspective of export commodity structure, the top three are cutting tools ($1.24 billion), abrasives ($1.04 billion) and metal cutting machines ($970 million), which account for 23.5% of exports, respectively. 19.7% and 18.4%.
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Fourth, the market demand is stabilizing
Due to the slowdown in China's economic growth and the change in development mode, China's machine tool consumer market and industry are also experiencing profound structural adjustments. The market changes characterized by “significant reduction in total volume and accelerated structural upgrading†are increasingly evident. As China's economic development enters a new normal, demand changes in the machine tool consumer market will also stabilize.
1. The total order volume decreased, and the low position stabilized. According to the statistics of the Machine Tool Association's key contact network orders from January to June 2014, the new orders of all enterprises decreased by 3.3% year-on-year, and the orders in hand decreased by 3.3%. Among them, new orders for metal cutting machine tools decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, and orders in hand decreased by 3.2% year-on-year; new orders for metal forming machine tools decreased by 8.4% year-on-year, and orders for orders decreased by 5.1% year-on-year.
2. Imports turned from negative to positive, and mid-to-high-end demand rebounded from January to June of 2014. The total import value was US$8.15 billion, an increase of 0.28% year-on-year. Compared with the year-on-year data of imports in 2013 (-20.2%), there is a clear rebound. Since May, the import of machine tools and tools has shown a two-month increase in the month and a month-on-month increase. Under the combined influence of the appreciation of the renminbi and steady growth of the country and the promotion of foreign trade, it is expected that imports will show a trend of stagnation in the second half of the year, and will drive positive growth in imports throughout the year. As the import situation reflects the demand of the domestic mid-to-high-end market, the recent trend of imports indicates that demand in the domestic mid-to-high-end market is picking up.
V. Forecasts and recommendations for the second half of the year
Through the analysis of the economic operation and import and export data of the industry from January to June 2014, it is expected that the operation of the machine tool industry in the whole year will show a “low level and stabilizeâ€. Based on the gradual stabilization of metal processing machine tools and the obvious recovery of imports, it is expected that China's machine tool consumer market will continue to maintain the number one position in the world in 2014, but the scale will decline.
In order to promote the smooth operation of the industry and achieve the goal of transformation and upgrading, and to cope with unfavorable factors and downward pressure, it is recommended to increase support for enterprise exports, leverage the international market to resolve excess capacity; further reduce the threshold for export credit, clean up unreasonable charges, and increase the development Support from overseas markets and exhibitions to increase the scope and intensity of export tax rebates for the purpose of balancing exchange rate appreciation; implement financial support for the real economy policy, and solve financial institutions such as banks to lend, slow down and suspend industrial enterprises Loan leads to the problem of tight capital chain; it provides necessary financial support to enterprises that meet the industrial structure adjustment direction and transformation and upgrading objectives; in the use of national financial funds for investment, it is necessary to increase the consideration of domestic independent brand products to create A fair and reasonable industrial development environment.
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