China has been inspired by the success of shale gas in the U.S. and set an ambitious target: to increase domestic shale gas production from zero to 6.5 billion cubic meters by 2015. However, achieving this goal seems to rely heavily on the "two oil giants"—PetroChina and Sinopec. Many local and private enterprises that won bids through competitive processes have yet to produce even a single cubic meter of shale gas.
Behind this situation lies a major issue: about 80% of China’s shale gas resources are controlled by PetroChina and Sinopec. Other companies are left with less attractive, high-risk blocks that are geologically challenging and offer limited reserves. As a result, many firms struggle to make progress, while only a few manage to move forward.
With just over 20 days left in the year, there is still no official announcement about the third round of shale gas exploration rights bidding. At a recent industry meeting, officials from the Ministry of Land and Resources confirmed that the third round may not happen by the end of 2014, though the exact timeline remains unclear.
Analysts suggest that the third round of bidding might be delayed until next year, but the reasons for the delay remain uncertain. The first two rounds of bidding saw 16 companies win access to 19 blocks, but development has been slow due to lack of experience, technology, and high costs.
For example, Beijing Titan Tongyuan, one of the few private companies to win a bid, has yet to start meaningful exploration in Guizhou. Similarly, Huaying Shanxi Energy Investment, another private firm, is still in the preliminary stages of its project. These delays highlight the challenges faced by non-state enterprises in the sector.
Despite these obstacles, officials from the Ministry of Land and Resources remain optimistic about meeting the “12th Five-Year Plan†target. They point to the achievements of Sinopec and PetroChina, which have already produced over 143 million cubic meters of commercial shale gas. Based on their projected output, they believe the 6.5 billion cubic meter target can be met—and possibly exceeded.
However, the reality is far more complex. Most of the current production comes from state-owned enterprises, and private and foreign players face significant barriers. The majority of high-quality shale gas blocks are already under the control of PetroChina and Sinopec, leaving little room for new entrants.
Experts like Chen Liming from BP China argue that the biggest challenge is not just capital or infrastructure, but the monopolization of mineral rights. With 80% of shale gas resources already locked up by the big oil companies, it's difficult for others to compete.
In response, BP has called for more open access and better regulatory frameworks to encourage competition. This includes establishing clear rules for entry and exit, as well as opening the market to private and foreign investors.
The government has also tried to separate shale gas from traditional oil and gas blocks, but progress has been slow. While policies exist to allow other companies to explore shale gas within existing oil blocks, the major oil companies have shown little willingness to cede control.
Moreover, there are internal conflicts between government agencies. The National Energy Administration and the Ministry of Land and Resources have different visions on how to regulate and develop the sector. This lack of coordination hinders progress and creates confusion among industry players.
In conclusion, while China has made some progress in shale gas, the path ahead is fraught with challenges. The dominance of state-owned enterprises, regulatory hurdles, and lack of competition all pose serious obstacles to achieving the country’s ambitious targets. Without meaningful reforms and greater openness, the future of China’s shale gas industry remains uncertain.
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