Shanghai construction steel sales in June fell 35% steel prices "torn" fell without falling

According to the latest market report provided by the well-known steel spot trading platform “Xiben Shinkansen”, compared with the continuous decline in steel prices in May, the Shanghai construction steel market in June showed the characteristics of “cold bottoming”, and steel prices moved in and out, approaching the cost line. , the decline can not fall, sales decreased by 35%. At present, steel mill supply and social inventories are still at a high level. The adjustment of export tax rebate will make steel “return”. Even if steel prices gradually bottom out, there is currently no incentive to get out of the bottom area and achieve a rebound.

Market participants believe that in June Shanghai's construction steel market can be described as "tangled", almost half a month "sideways" no adjustment, steel prices are in a dilemma. According to the monitoring data of “Xiben Shinkansen”, in June, the purchase volume of wire rod and rebar terminal in Shanghai was basically the same as that of the previous month, but it fell sharply by 35% compared with the same period of last year. The intermediate demand was also cautious. Stock digestion is very slow, and the rate of lightening in less than a week is less than 1%. The pattern of strong demand and weak demand has been fixed. The steel price is approaching the cost line, and the cost rigid support effect begins to appear. The steel mill's “replenishment” space is greatly reduced, and the merchants' willingness to fall is negligible, and the steel price “can't fall”.

Relevant analysts said that the high inventory of the steel market has been "normalized". If the release of demand in the later period is difficult to meet expectations, high stocks will undoubtedly become a drag factor for the steel market. Although the national crude steel output level in May has decreased from the previous month, it is still at the second highest level in history. With the global steel prices falling, the export orders of steel mills in June showed a significant decline. The recent export tax rebates for 48 kinds of steel products such as hot rolled coils will further affect the export of domestic steel products, which originally flowed to the international market. Some of the steel will be returned to the domestic market, increasing the pressure on domestic steel market supply.

It is understood that the spot steel market is difficult to change, which directly leads to a downward shift in the steel raw material market. At present, the prices of steel billets in Shanghai and scrap in Jiangsu have both decreased month-on-month; the price of coke in Shanxi fell by 100 yuan per ton month-on-month; the import price of 63.5% grade Indian powder mines is around 150 US dollars per ton. The Baltic International Dry Bulk Shipping Index continued to fall, hitting a new low in the year, and the iron ore spot market has cooled significantly.

Relevant market participants believe that the next July, coincides with the weather of “Meiyu plus high temperature” in Shanghai and surrounding areas. It was originally the off-season of the construction steel market, and the release of demand will be more difficult. Although the steel mills have increased their efforts to reduce production, they have certain expectations. However, there is still no significant trend, and the supply pressure will be maintained. Objectively speaking, in view of the fact that the construction steel price in Shanghai has not been adjusted for half a month, it shows that the steel price has fallen, but it lacks the momentum and opportunity to rebound. The next step is likely to continue to fall slightly. To achieve a true bottom, the price of the high-quality rebar representative specifications will be oscillated between 3,700 and 3,900 yuan.

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