Analysis of the prospects of China's steel industry in 2011

In 2010, China's economy was in a critical period of transition from recovery to good development. The steel industry maintained its upward trend since last year. Production continued to grow, exports increased significantly, and corporate profits improved. However, since the second half of the year, due to the uncertainties and instability of economic recovery and growth at home and abroad, the industry's operating level has gradually declined, and the steel industry's annual operation has been high and low. China's steel industry operation ( The rapid growth of crude steel production has slowed down and the structure has undergone positive changes. In 2010, the country produced 62.65 million tons of crude steel, an increase of 53 million tons over the previous year, an increase of 9.3%, and a capacity utilization rate of 82%. From the trend of steel operation in the whole year, the monthly increase of crude steel in the first five months was above double digits. After June, the growth rate slowed down remarkably. The production and output decreased for the fourth consecutive month, 8, 9, 10 Monthly production showed a negative growth year-on-year. The annual average daily production level of crude steel was 1.17 million tons. In April, it reached the highest level of 1.847 million tons in the year, which is equivalent to an annual output of 670 million tons of crude steel. In September, it fell to a minimum of 1.598 million tons, equivalent to an annual output of 580 million tons of crude steel. The highest in April fell by nearly 14%, showing a significant decline. Apparent consumption of crude steel in 2010 was 599.35 million tons, an increase of 6.1% over the same period last year. In terms of enterprises, the key large and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises accounted for 86.2% of the country's crude steel output, an increase of 4.2 percentage points over the previous year. There are 13 enterprise groups with an annual output of 10 million tons of steel. From the perspective of steel products, the output of sheet and strip mainly used in the manufacturing industry increased by 18.9% year-on-year, which is 8 percentage points higher than that of long-term construction materials. The proportion of sheet and strip products representing industrialization has increased significantly. (2) The price volatility of steel prices has narrowed, and the overall price is at a relatively low level. The overall price of steel products is at a relatively low level. The price trend shows frequent fluctuations and narrowed amplitudes. Domestic steel prices have fluctuated slightly with the macroeconomic situation and the supply and demand of steel. The steel price index reached a minimum of 108.7 points during the year, climbing to the highest level of 128.3 points at the end of the year. The annual steel price index rose by 21.1 points, but still It is about 20% lower than the high price before the 2008 financial crisis. Long products (including wire, thread, round steel, section steel) increased by 23.1% compared with the beginning of the year, and plates (including hot rolled coils, cold rolled coils, galvanized sheets, and medium and heavy plates) rose by 13.8%. In 2010, although steel prices fluctuated several times, the highest and lowest comprehensive price indices differed by only 19.6 points, which was the smallest in recent years. In the whole year, it is a normal fluctuation of the market. ( The export of steel products increased significantly, but the momentum was suppressed. After the financial crisis, China's steel exports shrank sharply. In 2009, exports fell by nearly 60% compared with the previous year. In 2010, steel exports recovered significantly. The annual export of steel products was 42.56 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 73.1%. In June, the export steel reached the highest of 5.62 million tons in the year. After that, due to the decline in steel prices in the international market, the slowdown in demand and the export control policy, China’s steel exports fell month by month. After August, the monthly export volume remained at At the level of about 3 million tons, the cumulative growth rate of steel exports has gradually narrowed from the highest 152% to 73.1% at the end of the year. In the same period, China imported 16.43 million tons of steel, down 6.9% year-on-year. Import and export offset, the annual net export of steel was 26.13 million tons, an increase of 2.76 times over the previous year, but it was about 40% lower than that in 2008. At the same time, due to the excessive increase in the price of imported ore and the large increase in domestic mines, the annual import of iron ore was 620 million tons, down 1.4% year-on-year. The external dependence of iron ore also dropped from 69% in the previous year to around 63%. . (four) The progress of energy reduction can be reduced, and the unit energy consumption and emissions continue to decline. In 2010, the steel industry passed the technological transformation and eliminated backwardness. New progress has been made in reducing emissions. At the end of the quarter, the energy consumption per unit of steel industry is increased by The quarterly increase of 0.67% turned to a decrease of 4.88%. The key comprehensive energy consumption of large and medium-sized enterprises is 604.6 kilograms of standard coal, down 2.21% year-on-year, sulfur dioxide emissions are 667,000 tons, down 8.79%, and COD emissions are 30,000 tons, down 11.43%. (E) the elimination of backward steadily, mergers and acquisitions in 2010 was completed in an orderly manner "ten Five key to eliminating backward production capacity In the year, the state increased its efforts to eliminate backward production capacity. Thoughts, and strive to implement them. At the beginning of the year, the state issued the target of eliminating backward production capacity, and all localities actively implemented the enterprise and made an announcement to the society. The steel industry eliminated 35.24 million tons of backward ironmaking capacity and 8.76 million tons of steelmaking capacity throughout the year. The five-year cumulative completion of the elimination of backward ironmaking, steelmaking capacity of the target of 117% and 126%. Enterprise mergers and acquisitions have also made new progress, Anshan Iron and Steel and Panzhihua Iron and Steel to achieve joint restructuring, Benxi Steel merged with Beitai Iron and Steel, Shougang merged Tonghua Steel Tianjin Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. jointly established Tianjin Bohai Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., and Hebei Iron and Steel Group reorganized 12 private steel enterprises in the province. Through joint restructuring, the industrial concentration has been greatly improved, and the top ten output of crude steel is ranked in the top ten. The output of iron and steel enterprises accounted for 48.6% of the national total, an increase of 5.1 percentage points over 2009. Second, the main problems in the operation of the steel industry in 2010 ( The operating costs of the industry have increased substantially. With the gradual recovery of the global market in 2010, the output of major crude steel producing countries has recovered strongly, and the demand for raw materials has increased substantially, resulting in the international bulk raw material market price. The road is high, which also drives the rapid rise of domestic raw material prices. China's imported iron ore prices climbed from an average of US$90/ton in January to US$145/ton at the end of the year, up 61%. The average price of imported iron ore for the year was US$128/ton, up by US$40/ton from the previous year. To this end, the cost of importing iron ore from steel companies has increased by about 196 billion yuan. In the same period, the price of metallurgical coke larger than 40mm in China increased by 12.8%, and the price of scrap increased by 20%. As a result, the production cost of key large and medium-sized steel companies in 2010 increased by 30.7%. The sharp increase in production costs has seriously eroded the profits of steel companies. (II) The profit level of enterprises has been declining. Due to the sharp increase in the prices of bulk raw materials in recent years, the rise in steel prices is lower than the increase in raw material prices, resulting in a continuous decline in the profitability of the steel industry. From the perspective of the profit of key large and medium-sized enterprises, the profit margin of sales revenue has decreased year by year since 2007, and it was 7.26%, 3.23%, and 2.46% from 2007 to 2009. In 2010, it rebounded slightly to 2.91%, still far below the national average of 6.2% of industrial enterprises. In particular, since May 2010, due to the increase in the price of raw materials such as ore, the oversupply of the steel market, and the continuous low price fluctuations in steel prices, corporate profitability has declined month by month. In 2010, large and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises realized a profit of 89.7 billion yuan, of which the profits of the top 20 enterprises in profits reached about 83%, Baosteel The profit of the family accounts for about 26%, and most of the enterprises are in a state of low profit or loss. The overall profitability of the industry is not optimistic. ( Use the space of the international market to digest capacity to reduce the net export of crude steel before the financial crisis Up to 11.2% of the annual production, which has contributed to the excess capacity of China's steel industry. Set the mitigation effect. This in 2009 The proportion dropped to 0.5% and returned to 4.4% in 2010. However, China's national conditions determine steel products to meet domestic demand. The state does not encourage large-scale exports. In 2010, the export policy of steel products was adjusted, and the spread of international trade protectionism made it more difficult to export steel products, space was reduced, and steel production capacity was basically It must be digested by the domestic market. The reduction in exports undoubtedly reflects the national interest, but it has increased the pressure on the domestic market for the steel industry. The situation faced by China's steel industry in 2011 The Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that the world economy is expected to continue to resume growth in 2011, but there are still many uncertainties and uncertainties. To do a good job in economic work in 2011, there are many favorable conditions and there are also Some prominent contradictions and problems. As an important basic industry, the iron and steel industry will continue to contribute to the development of industrialization and urbanization in China for a long time to come. Looking forward to 2011, the world economic recovery is still slow and will seek economic growth in stability; the domestic economy will remain The growth rate is still strong, and the demand for rigidity is still strong. The downstream manufacturing industries, mainly used in the steel industry, such as construction, machinery, transportation, home appliances, shipbuilding, etc., are still developing, providing market space for the development of the steel industry; joint restructuring, elimination of backwardness, The promotion and implementation of policies and measures such as emission reduction and industry regulation have created favorable conditions for the smooth operation of the steel industry and the steel market. At the same time, the pressure on domestic economic restructuring has increased, and the intensity of steel consumption has declined. The international market is fiercely competitive. The steel export situation is not optimistic. Moreover, as the bulk of raw fuels are still on the rise, steel production costs will continue to increase. In the middle of the year, the steel industry's production and operation will face a more severe situation. ( Steel production and consumption maintained growth, but growth slowed in 2011. Apparent consumption of crude steel is expected to be 630 million tons, up 5% year-on-year; crude steel output is around 660 million tons, up 5% year-on-year. Under the policy guidance of steel products to meet the domestic market demand, China's net steel exports in 2011 are expected to be the same as in 2010. (2) The price of raw fuel is running at a high level, and the efficiency of the steel industry will not change significantly. In 2011, iron ore prices will continue to operate at a high level. China's imported iron ore is generally maintained at around 600 million tons. The overall level of domestic steel market prices is expected to increase from the previous year, supported by cost. Under the dual role of high crude oil price operation and continuous fluctuation of steel prices, the steel industry's sales profit margin will still be lower than the industry average. 2011 is the first year of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan". The high-speed development stage of China's steel industry is nearing completion. The transformation mode and adjustment structure are the only way for the steel industry to develop in the next step. At present, the production and operation of iron and steel enterprises is more difficult, but it is also the acceleration of the steel industry. A good period for reducing emissions and accelerating structural adjustment, the whole industry must We can work harder on emission reduction and structural adjustment, and use the market to force the mechanism to accelerate structural adjustment and transform the development mode to promote the healthy development of the steel industry.

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