Four Warnings for the Future Development of Door and Window Industry

I. The trend of re-leveraging in China has a new round of asset crisis

During the global economic crisis, China’s economy rebounded rapidly, major government investment led, and consumption did not increase. The transformation of the economic growth mode stipulated in our 11th Five-Year Plan should shift to efficiency improvement. And now it is necessary to increase domestic demand and increase it. This is a big problem. Other countries are deleveraging, defoaming, and eliminating over-issued currency. We now have a re-leveraging trend. If we go on like this, we will go to a situation before the crisis. If the currency is overstretched and then leveraged, there will be a new round of asset crisis. Now that some signs have been shown, for example, the soaring prices of the stock and real estate markets should cause serious concern in the window and door industry.

Second, the most important factors affecting China's economy in the next decade are land and land-related issues.

China is actually in the process of land capitalization. We have not yet organized this capitalization process very well and consciously. Now many problems in the economy have arisen.

3. During the period of low-to-medium-growth growth, Chinese companies that are dependent on factor input and market expansion will face the challenge of survival.

In the next 10 years, China's economy may experience low-to-medium growth. What should Chinese companies do? In previous years, there had been a study. When China's economic growth rate was less than 7% or less than 6%, most of our companies were losing money. The entire national economy was not profitable. While the US economy and the developed countries’ economies, the growth of 1%, 2%, and 3% is the norm, but companies can be profitable. why? With the investment of major elements in China's enterprises, the major market capacity has expanded rapidly. We will not make technological progress after the slowdown in the demand for doors and windows, and increase productivity to make profits. Therefore, the door and window industry is facing a change in the mode of production.

Fourth, the government-led investment-driven Midwest should be prevented from becoming the third "Mizuo Bridge"

The former agricultural economy dominated in the south of Italy's “Mito Ginocchio”, and Italy later formed a huge income gap between North and South in the shift to modern economic growth. Is China's growth in the central and western regions sustainable? The second "U.S.-Leh-Brino" East Germany region had also experienced relatively rapid growth, but it slowed down. The government's massive transfer of investment and subsidies did not induce employment-absorbing industries and did not result in per capita income levels in these regions. improve. Will China's Midwest be the third "United States left bridge?" In the past few years, the growth rate in the central and western parts of the country has been very fast. However, careful analysis reveals that the capital intensity of manufacturing in the central and western regions, that is, the capital to labor ratio, has risen rapidly, and the absolute level is higher than that in the coastal areas. However, per capita income in the Midwest is still relatively low. This is similar to the situation in East Germany. Therefore, it is necessary to prevent the Midwest from becoming the third "Mizuno Bridge."