The bleakness of PV 2012 is just the tip of the iceberg?

PV company's 2012 performance was generally bleak, product prices continued to drop, gross margins were extremely low, accounts receivable and debt problems plagued the entire industry. Wang Haisheng, principal analyst of Minsheng Securities Power Equipment New Energy, said in an exclusive interview with the author that the worst of the photovoltaic industry has not yet arrived, and the entire industry still needs to undergo a thorough reshuffle. The signs of recovery in the current industry are difficult to sustain.

A-share photovoltaic sector related listed company performance in 2012 will have what performance?

Wang Haisheng: At present, only a few listed companies in the A-shares have disclosed their pre-losing losses. Chao Sun’s loss is expected to be RMB 900 million. The 2012 annual report performance deteriorated further compared to the 2012 third quarterly report.

The main reason is that most listed companies will put bad debts and asset impairment accruals in the annual report, and this part will account for a higher proportion of the 2012 performance loss. In addition, the deterioration of shipments and prices in the fourth quarter of last year was also an important reason for the declining performance. There are also some companies with a wide range of business areas, and I believe that the reports of these companies in the photovoltaic sector will not be too good.

A few days ago, the National Energy Work Conference proposed to increase the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation by 10 GW in 2013 and reiterated that it will vigorously develop distributed photovoltaic power generation. Market interpretation is good, how do you see this expectation?

Wang Haisheng: Actually, from the 10GW figure, it did not exceed expectations. The amount of 10 GW of grid connection, of which 2 GW is continuation from 2012, is estimated to be about 8 GW of construction volume this year, an increase of 30%. In other words, the domestic market in 2013 had an increase of only 2-3 GW year-on-year in 2012.

We pay more attention to the total amount of development and construction. The installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation should be 5.5-6 GW last year, but the amount of grid connection at the end of last year was less than 4 GW. The Golden Sun project was actually lower than expected in 2011 and 2012.

In addition, the National Energy Work Conference has clearly stated that it must focus on the development of distributed photovoltaic power generation. Large-scale ground power stations have a large volume of individual projects and are easy to load. However, distributed projects are small and many projects have to be approved. Although the State Grid has expressed its support for distributed projects, it still needs to address the issue of the power system in detail and the business model is not mature enough. We have calculated that if the distributed power plant is currently rumored to be 0.4-0.6 yuan/kWh, the cost of coverage will not be enough.

The process of capacity reduction is far from over. Is the problem of overcapacity still serious in the photovoltaic industry chain in 2013? Relatively more optimistic about which part of the photovoltaic industry chain?

Wang Haisheng: This year, the overcapacity of the entire photovoltaic industry chain is still very serious. Through our own investigations and some professional organizations, we have obtained more reliable data. In 2012, there were more than 600 PV cell and module manufacturers in China, and the number of PV cells and modules decreased by 1/4 only in the previous year. However, the total production reduction capacity may be only 10%. , Well-known manufacturers are no less. Most of these discontinued component manufacturers are in shutdown and semi-discontinued state. Most of the production capacity is new capacity in 2011. When the market improves, the production capacity will soon recover.

In the photovoltaic industry chain, we are relatively optimistic about polysilicon companies, but only relatively optimistic. In the polysilicon industry, the raw material demand for 20 GW of module production is 100,000 tons, but this year, only GCL-Poly's production capacity reaches 60,000 tons. Large-scale companies, including TBEA, have sufficient capacity, and some companies still have plans to expand production. Adding up to more than 100,000 tons of supply, this does not include overseas production capacity.

The recent rapid increase in polysilicon prices is temporary and difficult to sustain. China has implemented "double opposition" on imported polysilicon such as South Korea, pushing up the price of polysilicon, which is an important reason for the recent price increase.

It should be pointed out that the rise in polysilicon prices will increase the pressure on the midstream industry to reduce costs. The long-term view of polysilicon prices depends on the relationship between supply and demand. Short-term rises are detrimental to the long-term development of the industry.

The power station is relatively optimistic, and this year should be a good year. The cost of the power station will not increase too much, the price of electricity will remain at the current level, and the profit for the development of the power station will still be guaranteed. However, the differences between different developers are very large and they need to be screened.

Has the worst of the PV industry passed? How can we let PV companies get out of trouble?

Wang Haisheng: The worst period has yet to arrive. In the future, we will also look at the “double reverse” traceability of the EU’s PV companies in China and the domestic “double reverse” ruling. The current warming should be short-term, and the historical low is still behind. At that time, many companies may fall.

Out of the predicament of the industry needs to be based on the premise of capacity reduction, must be a representative of the collapse of the manufacturer, but now US stocks, Hong Kong stocks, A shares listed companies have not closed down. Although this sounds cruel, the photovoltaic industry must have a real reshuffle. Stopping work is not called production, and closure is called production. We have always believed that we must let some companies fall and let them withdraw, and the entire industry can usher in better development prospects. This phenomenon has not yet appeared, so we look at the photovoltaic industry.