Li Keqiang asked for the growth rate stimulus policy to be introduced again

After continuously emphasizing the three economic tasks of “stable growth, restructuring, and reform”, the Chinese government’s top management has further clarified that stable growth and restructuring must complement each other and be “stable and promising”.

On July 9, Li Keqiang, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Premier of the State Council, hosted a symposium on economic situation in some provinces and regions in Guangxi. Li Keqiang stressed that it is necessary to enhance the pertinence and predictability of regulation and control, to achieve stability and do something, and to complete the main tasks of economic and social development throughout the year.

He also said that macroeconomic regulation and control should be based on the current and long-term perspective, so that the economic operation is in a reasonable range, the economic growth rate, employment level, etc. do not slip out of the "lower limit", and the price increase does not exceed the "upper limit." In such a reasonable interval, we must focus on restructuring, promoting reform, and promoting economic transformation and upgrading.

The political economist Lu Zhengwei of the Industrial Bank [microblogging] told the "First Financial Daily" that the above-mentioned statement of the government shows that under the guidance of "adjusting the structure", the Chinese policy pendulum has once again turned to "steady growth", but it is also clear. "Steady growth" and "tune structure" must complement each other.

Although Li Keqiang did not specify the specific "lower limit" and "upper limit" in his speech, the political commissar of Lu believes that the "lower limit" of economic growth is to ensure that the annual GDP growth rate is not less than 7.5%, and the "upper limit" of rising prices is guaranteed throughout the year. The CPI does not exceed 3.5%, both of which are the annual economic targets set by the Chinese government at the beginning of this year.

Some government officials have revealed to the newspaper that the specific policies of “stable and promising” are mainly reflected in investment and consumption policies, fiscal policies and monetary policies, especially in terms of investment and consumption policies. It is expected that there will be some easing, including promotion of consumption (information Consumption, promotion of railway investment, promotion of shantytown renovation, promotion of urban infrastructure construction, promotion of energy conservation and environmental protection investment will become the focus.

Overseas has worried about China’s difficult annual goal

Li Keqiang mentioned in his speech that since the beginning of this year, China's economic operation has remained stable overall, and the main indicators are still in a reasonable range of annual expectations. The economic restructuring has progressed steadily, and the transformation and upgrading have stabilized and improved. However, the economic environment is more complicated, and favorable conditions and unfavorable factors coexist. The economy has both growth momentum and downward pressure.

Due to the release of China's economic data in the second quarter, it is speculated that the state's high-level statement may hint at the Chinese government's concerns about the economic slowdown in the first half of the year. In fact, due to the continued slowdown of China’s economy in the first half of the year, it seems that the outside world has not been optimistic about whether China can achieve its annual economic growth target.

At the beginning of this year, research institutions also generally forecast that China's economic growth rate will be around 8% this year, but in the near future, almost all international investment banks have lowered their forecasts for China's economic growth in 2013.

Morgan Stanley adjusted China's GDP growth forecast from 8.2% to 7.6%; Swiss Bank Group and Royal Bank of Scotland have also lowered their forecast for China's 2013 economic growth rate to 7.5%; ANZ Bank It is expected to fall from 7.8% to 7.6%; Nomura Securities is expected to adjust to 7.5%, while China's economic growth in the fourth quarter will be further slowed to 7.2%; while Barclays Bank and Goldman Sachs will set the latest forecast at 7.4%. Even lower than the official annual target of China.

China’s macro data performance is really not good because demand is weaker than in previous years. The industrial growth rate slowed down in the first five months, from the highest of 10.3% at the end of last year to 9.2% in May; the cumulative growth rate of fixed asset investment fell from 21.2% in the whole year of last year to 20.4% in January-May; After the summit reached 15.2% in December last year, it has been steady at around 12% since this year. In short, all data points to the word "slow down."

Foreign trade data just released yesterday also showed that China's foreign trade growth rate was only 0.3% in May, and further fell to a negative growth of 2% in June. Under the background of poor economic conditions and weak demand in major economies other than the United States, the export engine of the Chinese economy has not worked well. More importantly, since the processing trade means about 120 million jobs for China, the back of employment is stable, and government pressure can be imagined.

Domestic research supports the economy to stabilize

However, unlike overseas singers, Chinese economists seem to be more willing to use the word "stable" to describe the current situation.

Ding Maozhan, director of the Research Office of the National School of Administration, said in an interview with this reporter that from the current economic growth rate, the downward trend is not obvious. The indicators, including employment, were relatively stable and the relevant indices did not fall sharply. Many positive factors, including investment and consumption, have kept the economy running smoothly.

"The downward pressure is there, but it is not as big as it is rendered." Ding Mao war said.

Lian Ping, chief economist of the Bank of Communications, also believes that the current economic situation in China can be summarized by a "stable" word. He said that both the economic growth rate and the "troika" (investment, consumption, exports), employment, and prices are all within a reasonable range, and there is no need to worry too much about the sharp decline in the Chinese economy.

As consumption has surpassed investment to become the largest source of China's GDP growth, current consumption has played a role as a ballast stone in economic stability. For example, the data of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers shows that in the first half of the year, the production and sales of automobiles were 10.517 million and 10.7822 million respectively, an increase of 12.83% and 12.34%. The reporter learned in an interview with Changchun a few days ago that due to the hot sale of passenger cars, FAW Group is not worried about overcapacity, but insufficient capacity.

The government will co-ordinate "stable growth" and structural reform

At present, it seems that the simple economic stabilization is not enough for China's grand reform and adjustment tasks. The reporter noted that Li Keqiang’s "stable and promising" clearly stated in his speech may further emphasize that the government will not only continue to expand domestic demand in the future, but also expand the reform.

Li Keqiang said that "stable growth" can create effective space and conditions for "adjusting the structure", and the adjustment structure can add stamina to economic development. The two complement each other; and through the reform to remove institutional and institutional obstacles, it can be "steady growth" and "tune" The structure "injects new power.

The political commissar of Lu said that there has always been a fairly influential view in the field of policy research and the market. It implies that "steady growth" and "tune-structure" cannot be achieved at the same time. To "tune the structure", it is necessary to sacrifice economic growth. At the cost, otherwise, it is impossible to truly achieve the goal of “tuning the structure”. But this time, for the first time, from the official level, it is clear that the two are not exclusive but “mutually complementary”.

Ba Shusong [microblogging], deputy director of the Financial Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that stability is not stable, but steady and progressive, and that it is based on the real-time situation of the economy. Reasonable and modest measures. At present, the emphasis on revitalizing the stock of money is to move to the real economy, shifting to the transfer structure, going to the people's livelihood, and expanding the domestic demand.

Monetary and fiscal may be mildly stimulating

In response to the specific policy of “stable and promising”, some government officials have revealed to the newspaper that they will mainly be reflected in investment and consumption policies, fiscal policies and monetary policies. Railway investment, shantytown renovation, and urban infrastructure construction will become the focus.

For example, in terms of shantytown renovation, the current government is determined to rebuild more than 10 million shanty towns, which will help solve the dual structure within the city and also reduce the threshold of urbanization.

In terms of railway investment, official data show that from January to May this year, the national railway and joint venture railway network construction of large and medium-sized projects completed 132.265 billion yuan, an increase of 26.838 billion yuan or 25.5% over the same period of the previous year. From January to May, the national railway fixed assets investment was 157.81 billion yuan, an increase of 27.956 billion yuan over the same period of the previous year, an increase of 21.6%.

Following the decentralization of the intercity railway to the locality last year, there have been new moves in the recent reform of the railway investment and financing. Sichuan Province recently issued the "Implementation Plan for the Key Reform Work of Sichuan Province in 2013", which states that according to the state's deployment, the province will reform the railway investment and financing system, and take the lead in opening up the railway railway, intercity railway, resource development railway ownership and operation to social capital. right.

However, some officials on the railway said to the newspaper that although the current form of railway investment is relatively stable, but the amount of tasks in the latter stage is heavy, it still needs multiple ways to solve the funding gap.

Not only railways, government funding tensions may be the biggest constraint on the implementation of current fiscal policies. In terms of fiscal policy, in the face of extremely tight financial situation, Li Keqiang has proposed "activating the stock of money", using the unused and deposited financial funds, arbitrarily diverting the misappropriated money, and blocking the "running" money. .

In terms of monetary policy, some experts believe that the fiscal “activation stock” is a kind of loose, and the “revitalized stock” in the monetary policy field is actually tight. This is the biggest policy issue at present. Judging from the current understanding of monetary policy, relevant experts believe that the implementation of monetary policy in June is tight, and the future will not be as tight as in June, and the positioning is still neutral. It is difficult for the RMB exchange rate to continue to appreciate in the direction of the exchange rate, which will remain or slightly weak, and may introduce policies such as asymmetric interest rate cuts.