Where is the development of the global solar photovoltaic industry?

Due to the increasingly prominent global environmental pollution problems, solar photovoltaic power generation has become an emerging industry with universal attention and key development in the world because of its clean, safe and efficient characteristics. According to data released by GTM Research, a US market research firm, global new solar installed capacity is expected to grow 21% to 66 GW in 2016, an increase of 11 GW over 2015. However, in recent years, solar energy has brought rapid development of new energy sources around the world, and it has also been associated with many problems such as unstable power supply, weak infrastructure, and slow decline in photovoltaic cell costs. Current situation With the continuous expansion of the scale of solar photovoltaic applications, the manufacturing cost and system application cost of solar cells are gradually decreasing. At present, the price of solar cells is about 0.8 US dollars per watt. According to the 2015 Clean Energy Industry Report, the global investment in renewable energy power generation and fuel in 2014 was US$310 billion, up 16% year-on-year, and the fifth consecutive year exceeded the total investment in fossil energy power generation.
According to the International Energy Agency's (IEA) forecast for 2014, photovoltaic power generation capacity will reach 4,600 GW by 2050, which will provide a 16% share of all human power demand, equivalent to about 6.3 trillion kWh of electricity. According to this forecast, between 2015 and 2025, the average annual installed capacity will reach 120 GW or more, and it is expected to increase to 200 GW/year after 2025.
Even so, the International Energy Agency has been estimating the amount of solar power generated too low. According to the IEA 2000 forecast, the installed capacity of solar power will increase by 4 times in the next 15 years, but actually increased by 5 times. Next, the IEA raised the forecast for the installed capacity of solar power.
In addition to photovoltaic cells, solar concentrating technology is developing. This technology is mainly used to heat water or heat oil, as well as to drive ordinary turbines. However, this concentrating technology has only played a small role, adding about 1 GW of capacity per year to the world (relative to the photovoltaic cell's global supply of 50 GW). Dow Golan, director of the Center for Innovation and Technology at the International Renewable Energy Agency, believes that the use of this technology in desert areas may be more effective, such as Morocco and South Africa, where energy use is very efficient.
At present, in some developing countries, the solar industry is developing rapidly. Indian Prime Minister Modi at the Paris Climate Summit launched the International Solar Alliance to promote the use of solar energy, indicating that it will invest. China has become a global leader in the solar industry. In the first quarter of this year, it introduced international solar power plants with a capacity equivalent to the total power generation capacity of the French solar industry. The typical feature of China's solar energy development is that solar energy has been widely used in large-scale pastures, which has changed the balance of solar energy utilization around the world and reduced the installation of solar panels on the roof.
Even if the country is poor, solar energy can meet people's energy needs. More than 3.5 million homes in rural Bangladesh have installed solar power systems. The population of the global electricity-free zone is 1.3 billion people, which are usually caused by the lack of a grid system. When solving the problem of electricity in the electricity-free zone, solar energy, as the cheapest and independent source of energy, is becoming more and more popular in everyday life for countries with economic downturn. The future development of the solar industry may be very optimistic.

Obstruction factors are like other renewable energy sources. Solar power generation is affected by the weather. Solar energy installation utilization is a factor that inhibits the development of solar energy. Basically, solar power generation efficiency is quite critical. The operating power of coal-fired power plants is 70% to 80%. The utilization rate of solar cell installed capacity in the Nordic countries is only 15%, significantly reducing the competitiveness of solar energy. In recent years, the rapid development of solar energy has contributed to Germany's energy transformation, but it has also brought some problems. First, the price of electricity has risen too fast. Germany's feed-in tariff subsidies are achieved through the collection of electricity surcharges, and each year Germany provides subsidies for renewable energy of up to 20 billion euros. Second, the power supply is unstable. In the afternoon when solar energy is at the peak of power generation, or on Saturdays and Sundays when factories are resting, renewable energy often appears to be oversupply. The third is to break the ecology of the power generation industry. The main part of the profitability of traditional power plants comes from the premium of peak electricity consumption. Now renewable energy “cuts away” this part of the cake, causing huge losses for traditional power companies. To this end, the German government launched the latest version of the "Renewable Energy Law" on August 1, 2014. The overall policy is to reduce subsidies for renewable energy.
Analysts at PointCarbon of Thomson Reuters revealed to the British newspaper The Guardian that the solar industry is expected to encounter several low tides. The construction of power system infrastructure is used to provide stable electrical energy for production. At present, it is necessary to strengthen infrastructure construction and overcome the shortcomings of solar energy and wind energy supply instability.
The power systems of various countries are in the process of transformation, but the amount of infrastructure investment is huge and the completion of the project is relatively slow. Plans to build the largest solar power plant in the Sahara Desert in Europe have fallen, and if the plant is built, it will meet 15% of European electricity demand by 2050. The reason for the interruption of the project is that the cost of solar energy transportation is not so fast, including the cost of solar panels. Dove Golan believes that these changes are factors that limit the growth of the solar industry.
Dove Golan said that solar power will account for 10% of the world's total electricity generation by 2050. In addition, batteries used to store excess energy at night or on cloudy days are still very expensive, although battery costs are decreasing. Tesla said that Tesla will provide cheap energy storage facilities for individuals installing rooftop solar energy and large energy companies in the short term.

Forecasting and responding To achieve an optimistic forecast for the development of the solar energy industry, it is necessary not only to improve the energy storage system, network infrastructure, but also to increase the state's support.
If the solar development boom in the past five years marks the formation of a global industry, then it should be said that it is maturing in the middle of the next century. However, due to the persistence of the economic crisis, the demand for polycrystalline silicon to rooftop solar photovoltaic devices has dropped significantly. It is expected that the price of solar energy facilities will fall further. In particular, people are increasingly cautious about the solar energy industry. Therefore, the development prospects of the global solar energy industry have been overshadowed.
Analysts at Thomson Reuters' PointCarbon forecast that the solar industry will grow moderately at the same rate of development in recent years, but this growth will not be very obvious and will be excessive to the S-shaped growth curve. The UK Climate Change Board and the US Energy Information Administration have proved this. Experts say that in the last 15 years, solar energy needs government subsidies in order to compete with traditional technologies such as coal and natural gas fossil fuels. At the beginning of 2016, oil prices fell below the $30 mark. Although low oil prices have slowed consumer cost pressures, they may hinder the development of the solar industry.
The representative of the UK Climate Change Committee stated that the solar industry may not receive state subsidies until 2020. Dove Golan also believes that the energy generated by solar energy may become one of the cheapest forms of power supply in the future. But at the same time, its low price depends in part on government policies, which will also reduce the fighting power with fossil energy.
However, as Dove Golan pointed out, a more preferred solution has been popularized around the world. That is, combining existing technologies of solar energy with other renewable energy sources, including hydro, wind, tidal and geothermal energy. These renewable energy sources provide either a variable or constant power generation mode, and the implementation of this technology depends on different solar radiation periods. For example, in Costa Rica, the above technologies have been used for effective combination, so Costa Rica now rarely uses diesel equipment to generate electricity. In other countries, especially the United Kingdom, nuclear energy has been used to replace the above-mentioned combination scheme. However, due to the high cost of nuclear power generation and the residents' concerns about nuclear safety, the use of nuclear energy has not been welcomed.
Although the solar energy that illuminates the Earth every hour is enough to meet the energy needs of the world for a year, solar energy itself is not enough to solve the problem of human use of clean energy.

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