Abstract "This year is much more lively than last year. It is as popular as the auto show!" This is the "SNEC Tenth International Solar Energy Industry and Photovoltaic Engineering Exhibition and Forum" held by the "Economic Information Daily" reporter last week...
"This year is much more lively than last year. It is just as popular as the auto show!" This is the most heard by the "Economic Information Daily" reporter at the "SNEC 10th International Solar Energy Industry and Photovoltaic Engineering Exhibition and Forum" held last week. In a word, even Shi Dingxi, the State Council Counselor who participated in the SNEC for ten years and the chairman of the China Renewable Energy Society, lamented that this was the most popular one he had seen in the past years. Behind the cool and tall booths, the signing of the contract, and the launch of new high-quality products, behind all the “live†is the “technical competition†and new technology between the PV companies under the “Leader†plan and the “630†power price reduction policy. A round of rushing and capacity expansion. It is worth noting that the industry consensus is that the overcapacity of the photovoltaic industry in the post-630 era will be highlighted, and there will be a new round of reshuffle, but the intensity is less than the wave adjustment five years ago.
Double policy to force technical competition
Since 2015, the National Energy Administration has been increasing the standards, quality and threshold of photovoltaic products year by year to guide the domestic PV manufacturing industry from pursuing scale expansion to focusing on quality and efficiency, and achieving a mode from high subsidy policy dependence to low subsidy competitiveness. One of the measures was the implementation of the “Leader†program, and the first 100MW demonstration base was settled in Datong.
At the same time, the PV on-grid price has been gradually lowered and the user-side parity online trend has been set in 2020. On June 30 this year, it is a power-down price node. According to the regulations, photovoltaic power generation projects with annual scale management before 2016 will be implemented. If the grid-connected power generation is not completed by June 30, 2016, the new electricity price standard will be implemented. This means that the subsidies for photovoltaic power stations in Class I, II and III resource areas will be reduced by 0.1 yuan, 0.07 yuan and 0.02 yuan respectively.
All this forced the PV companies to pay more attention to the cost of electricity. The promotion and application of high-efficiency products has become the focus of this year's industry development, and the technical route is more diverse. Jinneng Clean Energy Technology Co., Ltd. launched three cutting-edge technology products during the exhibition. "This year we expect the positive efficiency of heterojunction cells to reach 22%. By 2020, with the continuous improvement of technology, it is expected to drive the cost of photovoltaic power to 0.55 RMB/kWh, thus realizing the goal of affordable Internet access." Yang Liyou, general manager of the company revealed .
Jinko Energy also announced that its PV modules have successfully obtained the Qualification Plus (“Q+â€) certificate issued by TÃœV Rheinland, a third-party testing and certification organization, and became the first PV company in China to pass the test. At present, it has achieved mass production of more than 20% of high-efficiency polycrystalline batteries, and it is expected to achieve more than 20.5% mass production efficiency within the year.
With nearly half of the first phase of the Datong “Leader†demonstration project, JA Solar has five components that meet and exceed the “Leader†standard. “The leader plan will continue to implement and guide the industry upgrade. Price reduction is an eternal theme. What we need to do is to achieve low cost and high efficiency.†Xie Jian, CEO of JA Solar, told the Economic Information Daily.
It is worth noting that while the efficiency of components is improving, “systematic†and “distributed†are increasingly valued by enterprises. For example, Jinneng plans to build a photovoltaic ecosystem with tracking systems, inverter systems, and intelligent controls. The Sunbox Sunshine Box from Trina Solar and the “Innergy†brand of home photovoltaic power plant system launched by Yingli are also household system solutions that integrate all PV system components and use and grid-connected services.
Yan Xiaoying, president of Artes Solar Power Group, judged that the photovoltaic industry will undergo tremendous changes in technology. At present, the conversion rate of monocrystalline silicon cells is around 21%. After four to five years, the conversion rate of international first-line monocrystalline silicon cells will rise. By 23% or more, the conversion rate of polycrystalline silicon will increase from the current 18.9% to 19% to 22% to 23%. Secondly, with the decline in the cost of electricity, by 2020, PV will be able to access the Internet at a low price on the user side in most parts of the world. In the face of the problem of “depending on the skyâ€, it was a new world for energy storage and smart grid development. It is. In fact, many companies have already deployed in this area in advance.
A new wave of rushing and capacity expansion
Along with the policy adjustments, there is a new wave of rushing and capacity expansion. The National Energy Administration announced in April the "2016 first quarter photovoltaic power generation construction and operation information brief" shows that in the first quarter of this year, the country's new photovoltaic power generation installed capacity reached 7.14 million KW, including photovoltaic power plant 6.17 million KW, distributed photovoltaic This is 970,000 KW, which means that the amount added in the first quarter of this year has reached 70% in 2014 and half of the increase in 2015.
"Because of the influence of the '630' policy, many companies are rushing to install. The data in the second quarter has not yet come out, but the installation volume will not be small. It may be 13 to 15 GW by the end of June, so that the first half of the year will be able to Installed the goal of the whole year." Gao Jifan, chairman of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, co-chair of the Global Solar Energy Council, and chairman of Trina Solar.
"Economic Information Daily" reporter interviewed a number of PV companies responsible person learned that due to the relatively strong market demand last year and this year, some manufacturing companies' production lines are already in full operation, and even some OEM companies are also full. "What is worrying now is that there is no goods to sell. According to our capacity allocation, orders in the third and fourth quarters of this year have basically been locked in." Jing Jing, vice president of Jinko Energy Co., Ltd. told the Economic Information Daily.
Zhu Lijun, CEO of GCL-Poly, also said that due to the change in the subsidy policy for photovoltaic electricity prices, this round of rush is not the end of the year, but before June 30, the demand for silicon in the domestic market is concentrated in the fourth quarter of last year and this year. In the first quarter, demand for staged wafers was in short supply, and prices continued to rebound for a long time.
Under this circumstance, many non-photovoltaic industry cross-border enterprises and capitals have poured in, ambitiously prepared to do a big job, and the original photovoltaic manufacturing enterprises are also strong willing to expand production. Zhu Zhanjun said that according to the statistics of GCL-Poly Research Department, the industry has recently confirmed that the expansion of wafers is about 9 to 10 GW, and this part of production capacity will increase by about 5 GW in 2016.
There are similar situations in the battery and component sectors, especially in the technology-driven next-line companies for high-end capacity expansion. According to Yang Liyou, it is expected that by the end of June 2016, the capacity of batteries and components of Jinneng Technology Wenshui Base will be expanded to 1.1GW. In the future, the proportion of high-efficiency components will be further increased, and it is expected that the capacity will reach 3.5GW by 2018.
Overcapacity triggers shuffling
"If the market is good, everyone will invest. If there is more investment, there will be excess, and investment will stop. Maybe in the second half of this year and next year, there will be an adjustment in the domestic market, and there will be a round of reshuffle." Gao Jifan It is frank that some enterprises with comprehensive competitiveness, high technical level, good management quality and relatively healthy financial statements will further increase in this round of adjustment, regardless of output or market influence. On the contrary, those enterprises with relatively low technical level and insufficient financial strength will face elimination in this round of adjustment. This is the law of market development.
In fact, this phenomenon has already appeared. Zhu Zhanjun said that the price of the battery link has continued to fall recently, which is related to the battery expansion in the previous period, and may soon be staged in the silicon segment. From the perspective of global silicon supply and demand, the global installed capacity in 2015 was 53GW, while the production of silicon wafers was 60.3GW, and the production capacity was even larger. The current structural differences in wafer capacity are masked by continued strong market demand. With the spurt of the Chinese market in the first half of the year and the double-sided extrusion of silicon material price and battery price reduction, the new round of wafer production capacity will appear in the second half of the year. If the wafer companies do not continue to promote cost reduction and efficiency gains, it will be difficult to maintain the existing gross profit level, and even fail to cover the cash cost and choose to stop production.
It is worth noting that the Chinese PV industry is also facing the problem of “unusual costâ€. In Gao Jifan's view, this is reflected in four aspects. The first is the issue of power cuts. China's first-quarter light-restriction limit was about 1.9 billion kWh, and Ningxia, Xinjiang, and Gansu's power cuts ranged from 20% to 52%. The second is that the subsidy is delayed, which increases the cost of the enterprise. The third is the problem of local government. The National Energy Administration now decentralizes the “roadsâ€. Some local governments use the power of distribution to require enterprises to invest in some industrial facilities. The fourth is also the local government in the land and Increasing taxes and fees on the environment has also increased the burden on businesses. All this has led to the scale of power station companies, and profit and cash flow is difficult.
In the previous round of adjustments caused by overcapacity, many PV companies closed down, the most famous of which was the bankruptcy of Wuxi Suntech. Then, whether there will be such a cold winter, this has become the focus of the market.
In an interview with the "Economic Information Daily" reporter, Qian Jing also said that in the first half of this year, the demand for China's PV market and the first half of the year will definitely have a significant decline, in the first half of this year, the balance of supply and demand. There will be certain fluctuations in the market, and there will be a problem of overcapacity in the second half of the year. The problems of second-tier companies will be bigger, and the situation of first-line brands will be better. "Now the photovoltaic industry is still largely dependent on policies. There is a great impact on the changes. Jingke will not supply all the production capacity to a certain market, and the market share is balanced. For us, the only impact is In the case of oversupply, market customers will have higher bargaining power and price fluctuations, but the overall demand for shipments will not change."
"This adjustment will not be the same as the wave adjustment 5 years ago. The overcapacity is not as serious as before, so the adjustment will not be very large. Plus the current PV is still growing, it can be warmed up in a short time. This is short. Time may be one year. In this year, many companies will face elimination and integration, but there will be no previous adjustments.†Gao Jifan believes that enterprises should reduce costs through technological innovation and management optimization. At the same time, it is expected that power curtailment can be completely solved, subsidies can be put in place in time, and local governments can reduce abnormal costs from the overall situation, so that China's photovoltaic power generation can realize affordable electricity as soon as possible and promote the sustainable and healthy development of the industry.
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