Acrylic or unsustainable upswing

It is understood that after an explosion and shutdown of the catalyst catalyst system in Japan, in early November 2012, a fire broke out at an acrylic acid plant in Texas. The fire made the already tight market for acrylics even more alarming. On November 3 and November 4, two domestic acrylate manufacturers raised their prices again, making the average price of acrylic acid reach 17,000 yuan/ton, and the price was close to the lowest point of 9,000 yuan/ton in early July. Doubled. However, according to analysis, acrylic or difficult to continue rising trend.

Liu Xintian, chief researcher of the China Commodity Research Center under the Business Club, said that since the explosion of the 380,000-ton acrylic device by Japan's acrylic giant catalyst company at the end of September, the domestic acrylic acid price has continued to rise, which has reversed the downturn in the second and third quarters of this year. The company's performance has also improved.

In addition to emergencies, industry sources stated that since the second quarter, the demand for acrylic acid has gradually improved and the price of acrylic acid has risen for a long time.

The internal sources of satellite petrochemicals told the “Golden Securities” reporter: “The company had just adjusted the price one day before yesterday, rising by RMB 500 per ton. In fact, the demand in the second half of the year was better than that in the first half of the year, starting from July of this year. The price of acrylic esters has entered the rising channel, especially after the sudden occurrence of accidents at factories in Japan and the United States, and the price of acrylic acid has risen, and the company’s gross profit margin in the third quarter and its full-year performance are both expected. affected."

The three quarterly reports disclosed by Satellite Petrochemical show that the net profit for the first three quarters was 289 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 43.16%, and the decrease was 3.88 percentage points lower than the first half. Satellite Petrochemical expects its annual net profit to be between 380 million and 470 million yuan.

Consistent with the price trend of acrylics, satellite petrochemical's recent share price, from September 27 to October 24, satellite petrochemical shares soared 48.64%. After October 25, satellite petrochemical shares oscillated slightly. As of yesterday's close, the company's stock price was reported at 19.60 yuan per share.

Many market participants believe that the acrylic acid price rise has occasional factors, and the downstream demand has not improved significantly, so the price increase trend will not last long.

The “Golden Securities” reporter learned that the supply of acrylic acid may increase significantly in the future, or it will affect the future price trend of acrylic acid. The total investment of 200,000 tons of acrylic acid and ester produced by CNOOC in Huizhou recently was 2.75 billion yuan. Its products are mainly used in industries and fields such as environment-friendly coatings, adhesives and high water-absorbent resins. After the project is put into production, it is expected to be realized each year. Sales revenue is about 2.5 billion yuan. Wang Yilin, chairman of CNOOC, stated that the 200,000-ton/year acrylic acid and ester project was completed and put into production. It is an important symbol of the extension of CNOOC's refining and chemical industry to fine chemical industry.

In addition, the progress of investment in satellite petrochemical disclosure shows that the company has an annual output of 320,000 tons of acrylic acid, and an annual output of 300,000 tons of acrylic ester has entered the design stage. It is expected that the project will be put into trial production by the end of 2013.