According to data released by TheSteelIndex, the spot price of China's spot iron ore has fallen for 15 consecutive trading days. Since China's spot iron ore prices are already below the short-term agreement prices of the Big Three and Japanese steel companies for the third quarter iron ore supply, many Chinese steel companies have turned to the spot market to buy iron ore.
According to a short-term supply agreement between BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto on June 12 with Japanese steel companies, iron ore prices will be raised to US$147/ton from July 1. This price is basically the same as the iron ore price in China's spot market at that time. However, in the following month, China's spot iron ore prices fell again by 19%. BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto asked Chinese steel companies to buy iron ore in cash from July 1 to avoid default risk, fearing that iron ore prices will fall further.
Goldman Sachs JBWerePty analysts reported on July 9 that iron ore prices will fall further in the five months before the end of this year, and more and more Chinese steel companies will buy iron ore from the spot market.
Xu Lejiang, chairman of Baosteel Group Corp., China's second-largest steel company, said at a financial forum last month that China's steel industry will face severe challenges in the third quarter of this year due to falling steel demand due to rising iron ore prices. . He said that spot iron ore prices in the third quarter may fall below the quarterly contract price, which may prompt profit-driven small steel mills and trading banks to find low-cost iron ore in the spot market. However, large steel mills will insist on purchasing at contract prices, even if spot iron ore prices are lower, as large steel mills value long-term stability relationships with global iron ore producers.
Xu Lejiang said that due to the possibility of overhaul or production cuts in the fourth quarter, iron ore prices will definitely be lower in the fourth quarter than in the third quarter.
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