India's million tons of urea procurement difficult to suppress the low tide

India's MMTC has secured over 1 million tons of urea through recent procurement. On March 12, the bid prices from China and Iran stood at $305–$307 and $310–$312 per ton respectively. For Chinese suppliers, more than half of their production costs exceed these figures, making this deal seem surprisingly low. Despite the low price, the tender has at least two strategic implications. First, the 800,000-ton shipment from China is expected to hold the current pricing structure until mid-April. Second, India may not rush its next tender due to upcoming elections, with officials possibly delaying the next round until May. This would allow shipments to be pushed further into July, when Chinese suppliers could benefit from lower tariffs. The timing seems carefully planned, reflecting a blend of economic and political considerations in the global urea market.