This year's extraordinary loan issuance and an abnormal external environment have added to the positive growth of the consumer price index (CPI) operating in negative ranges. Next year, CPI is a foregone conclusion in the positive growth channel. How to prevent inflationary pressure is expected to become one of the key points of the forthcoming Central Economic Work Conference.
Inflation "change"
In the 1992 and 1993 of the last century, China suffered severe inflation. At that time, the CPI rose by as much as 24%, and the buying trend was prevalent. Everyone has been worried about it. Since the beginning of this century, people have always worried that China will enter the inflation cycle every time the price rises, but the price level always turns downwards in the fear.
Then, is the inflation expectation caused by the “drainage†of credit this time a false alarm or a latent “latent�
Economist Zhang Zhuoyuan said that there are four factors that affect future inflation: First, the recovery of China's economy and the recovery of the global economy have renewed the rise of international commodity prices, spurring the rise of domestic raw material prices and the transfer of CPI; This is a too fast money release this year. Although the launching efforts will slow down in the second half of the year, it will not be tightened quickly next year. Third, the price reform of resources will start, and the return of reasonable prices such as coal and electric oil will be a development trend. It is the local government's pursuit of performance, and the amplification effect of the financing platform makes the structural imbalance reappear.
Not only that, but weather abnormalities often lead to CPI "cold fever."
Recently, there have been blizzards in many provinces and cities in China. Some people worry that bad weather will push up CPI and industrial product price (PPI). This kind of worry is not unreasonable.
The impact of the rain and snow disaster on the economy in early 2008 is still impressive. As the rain and snow disaster pushed up the price of vegetables, meat and other foods, in January of that year, CPI rose by 7.1% year-on-year, hitting an 11-year high, while the CPI in February rose by 8.7% year-on-year, once again set a record a month ago. The snowy days ahead of this year have also caused the market to worry about the CPI in the next two months.
The monitoring results of the Ministry of Commerce also show that the market's fears are not illusory. From November 9 to 15, the market price of edible agricultural products under key monitoring in 36 large and medium-sized cities in China has shown a rebound and rebounded, up 1% from the previous week.
Lu Zhengwei, an economist at Industrial Bank, predicted that after the rise in agricultural prices, the year-on-year increase in CPI in November is likely to turn "from negative to positive." Zhang Xiaojing, director of the Macro Research Office of the Institute of Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, also believes that the CPI trend will turn positive in the next two months.
It seems that inflation has immediate confusion and long-term urgency.
CPI's weaknesses Where is the pressure limit for China's economy to withstand inflation? The current data is that the CPI is up 24%;
Is the endurance of the Chinese economy to bear inflation really strong? The answer is no.
Zhang Zhuoyuan reminded that due to the growing income gap, low-income groups are becoming more sensitive to CPI. If you follow the previous ideas, it is definitely out of place. Therefore, it is more important to improve the living standards and quality of the low-income class and protect people's livelihood.
In general, CPI is optimal at 4%, preferably no more than 5% or 6%. Maybe there will be no risk next year, but what about it in the future?
It is worth noting that due to the rapid “discharge†of the money supply this year, the current growth rate of M2 is close to the level of 1992, which is the most serious inflation period since China’s reform and opening up. Although the current CPI is still negative, The price of assets represented by real estate prices is rising, and the arrival of inflation seems to be the wind and rain.
Looking forward to modest regulation next year On October 21, Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council presided over the State Council executive meeting and proposed to correctly handle the relationship of maintaining stable and rapid economic development, adjusting economic structure and managing inflation expectations as the focus of macroeconomic regulation and control.
Looking back on the tone of the Central Economic Work Conference in recent years: 2006 is "changing from fast and good to good and fast"; in 2007, it was "controlling the total amount, stabilizing prices, adjusting the structure, and promoting balance". The contracted economic policy with the goal of overheating and anti-inflation; in the macroeconomic adjustment in 2008, “guaranteeing growth†is the core task, and raising investment to hedge exports.
Since the end of last year, the stimulus package has indeed played a fundamental role in China’s economic recovery. Next year, with the recovery of the economy, the "strong-hearted" policy will not come out again, so the regulation will also be moderate.
In fact, with the recovery of the economy, the policy has shown a trend of “shrinkingâ€. If new loans are added, the total amount in October this year will drop sharply from 519.67 billion yuan in September to 253 billion yuan, which indicates that the tight regulation of the foreign pine has begun.
Zhang Zhuoyuan also suggested that the government adopt more moderate control measures, including efforts to adjust the industrial structure to prevent a new round of industrial surplus; steadily push forward resource-based price reforms, and the speed should not be too hasty; slow the rate of currency issuance and maintain the stability of monetary policy. And coherence and so on.
As the economy stabilizes and rebounds, the PPI decline has gradually narrowed this year. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the PPI fell by 5.8% year-on-year in October, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month. The decline was sharply narrowed year-on-year, and from the previous quarter, it has also risen for seven consecutive months.
Will the rising PPI eat up business benefits? Liu Yuanchun, deputy dean of the School of Economics of Renmin University of China, believes that "the biggest problem for enterprises is the demand problem, not the cost. As long as the products can be sold, the profit recovery next year is also predictable."
Inflation "change"
In the 1992 and 1993 of the last century, China suffered severe inflation. At that time, the CPI rose by as much as 24%, and the buying trend was prevalent. Everyone has been worried about it. Since the beginning of this century, people have always worried that China will enter the inflation cycle every time the price rises, but the price level always turns downwards in the fear.
Then, is the inflation expectation caused by the “drainage†of credit this time a false alarm or a latent “latent�
Economist Zhang Zhuoyuan said that there are four factors that affect future inflation: First, the recovery of China's economy and the recovery of the global economy have renewed the rise of international commodity prices, spurring the rise of domestic raw material prices and the transfer of CPI; This is a too fast money release this year. Although the launching efforts will slow down in the second half of the year, it will not be tightened quickly next year. Third, the price reform of resources will start, and the return of reasonable prices such as coal and electric oil will be a development trend. It is the local government's pursuit of performance, and the amplification effect of the financing platform makes the structural imbalance reappear.
Not only that, but weather abnormalities often lead to CPI "cold fever."
Recently, there have been blizzards in many provinces and cities in China. Some people worry that bad weather will push up CPI and industrial product price (PPI). This kind of worry is not unreasonable.
The impact of the rain and snow disaster on the economy in early 2008 is still impressive. As the rain and snow disaster pushed up the price of vegetables, meat and other foods, in January of that year, CPI rose by 7.1% year-on-year, hitting an 11-year high, while the CPI in February rose by 8.7% year-on-year, once again set a record a month ago. The snowy days ahead of this year have also caused the market to worry about the CPI in the next two months.
The monitoring results of the Ministry of Commerce also show that the market's fears are not illusory. From November 9 to 15, the market price of edible agricultural products under key monitoring in 36 large and medium-sized cities in China has shown a rebound and rebounded, up 1% from the previous week.
Lu Zhengwei, an economist at Industrial Bank, predicted that after the rise in agricultural prices, the year-on-year increase in CPI in November is likely to turn "from negative to positive." Zhang Xiaojing, director of the Macro Research Office of the Institute of Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, also believes that the CPI trend will turn positive in the next two months.
It seems that inflation has immediate confusion and long-term urgency.
CPI's weaknesses Where is the pressure limit for China's economy to withstand inflation? The current data is that the CPI is up 24%;
Is the endurance of the Chinese economy to bear inflation really strong? The answer is no.
Zhang Zhuoyuan reminded that due to the growing income gap, low-income groups are becoming more sensitive to CPI. If you follow the previous ideas, it is definitely out of place. Therefore, it is more important to improve the living standards and quality of the low-income class and protect people's livelihood.
In general, CPI is optimal at 4%, preferably no more than 5% or 6%. Maybe there will be no risk next year, but what about it in the future?
It is worth noting that due to the rapid “discharge†of the money supply this year, the current growth rate of M2 is close to the level of 1992, which is the most serious inflation period since China’s reform and opening up. Although the current CPI is still negative, The price of assets represented by real estate prices is rising, and the arrival of inflation seems to be the wind and rain.
Looking forward to modest regulation next year On October 21, Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council presided over the State Council executive meeting and proposed to correctly handle the relationship of maintaining stable and rapid economic development, adjusting economic structure and managing inflation expectations as the focus of macroeconomic regulation and control.
Looking back on the tone of the Central Economic Work Conference in recent years: 2006 is "changing from fast and good to good and fast"; in 2007, it was "controlling the total amount, stabilizing prices, adjusting the structure, and promoting balance". The contracted economic policy with the goal of overheating and anti-inflation; in the macroeconomic adjustment in 2008, “guaranteeing growth†is the core task, and raising investment to hedge exports.
Since the end of last year, the stimulus package has indeed played a fundamental role in China’s economic recovery. Next year, with the recovery of the economy, the "strong-hearted" policy will not come out again, so the regulation will also be moderate.
In fact, with the recovery of the economy, the policy has shown a trend of “shrinkingâ€. If new loans are added, the total amount in October this year will drop sharply from 519.67 billion yuan in September to 253 billion yuan, which indicates that the tight regulation of the foreign pine has begun.
Zhang Zhuoyuan also suggested that the government adopt more moderate control measures, including efforts to adjust the industrial structure to prevent a new round of industrial surplus; steadily push forward resource-based price reforms, and the speed should not be too hasty; slow the rate of currency issuance and maintain the stability of monetary policy. And coherence and so on.
As the economy stabilizes and rebounds, the PPI decline has gradually narrowed this year. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the PPI fell by 5.8% year-on-year in October, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month. The decline was sharply narrowed year-on-year, and from the previous quarter, it has also risen for seven consecutive months.
Will the rising PPI eat up business benefits? Liu Yuanchun, deputy dean of the School of Economics of Renmin University of China, believes that "the biggest problem for enterprises is the demand problem, not the cost. As long as the products can be sold, the profit recovery next year is also predictable."
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