New energy wave: The fourth energy ** has arrived

The whole world has already acted. No one doubts that the "fourth" energy has arrived.

The financial tool chain that has shattered on Wall Street proves that the current virtual economy and the real economy are severely disconnected. At present, the existing industries in the world can no longer realize wealth through endogenous creative growth. The real economy can no longer create a large amount of wealth to fill the gaps. At the time of the currency, the core of the entire global economic operation once again returned - "technical innovation", which is often forgotten during the boom times and finally picked up during the crisis.

It is intriguing that not a high price of oil has induced humans to seek alternative mineral energy, but the financial crisis has completely detonated this round of “energy” changes.

The United States, the leader in the global economy, has set the breakthrough point for economic recovery to "new energy." When the Obama administration took office, it was very clear about the new energy and climate issues, which triggered a new wave of global "new energy." In his economic recovery plan, he also made clear that he will invest 150 billion U.S. dollars in the development of clean energy projects in the next 10 years, and hired Chinese scientist and Nobel laureate Zhu Xiwen as U.S. Secretary of Energy, “Science”. Leading innovation will once again play its charm.

International ** likes to compare Obama's "Energy" New Deal with the "information" triggered by Clinton's IT technology. It does have the same historical situation. It is also an emerging political leader of the Communist Party who is full of freshness and vigor. It also uses “technology” innovation to promote economic recovery and prosperity. It also triggers a “bubble” capital chase in the capital market.

China is also embroiled in this "new energy" transformation. Since the end of 2008, the “new energy” concept stocks in the A-share market have been sought after, and a number of photovoltaic industry parks, wind power equipment manufacturers and so on have also emerged in various places. The government’s industrial policy has also been established.

The National Energy Administration said in early June that the "New Energy Industry Development Plan" will be issued soon. By 2020, the total installed capacity of wind power, solar photovoltaic and nuclear power in China will reach 150 million kilowatts, 20 million kilowatts and 80 million kilowatts, respectively. Policy support has become more prominent.

At the same time, the Chinese official also gave a concept explanation of “new energy”. In an interview in early June, Liu Qi, deputy director of the Energy Bureau, said: “It is difficult to define new energy, and there are many different countries.” From energy technology From an angle of view, there are indeed many ways to “replace mineral” energy. There are six types of energy resources that China has written into the new energy plan. They are divided into two major categories. One aspect is about new types of wind power, solar energy, and biomass energy. energy. On the other hand, the new energy formed by the technological transformation of traditional energy sources, such as the efficient use of clean coal, for example, new types of fuel for vehicles, and smart grids.

These six emerging industries are also the most popular "new energy" technologies in the world. Undoubtedly, these six breakthroughs and changes in technology will deeply affect us.

Looking for "New Energy 2.0"

Thanks to the promotion of the Obama administration, the world's most active place for new energy technology development may still be in the United States. Regardless of the future development of the “new energy” industry, the technological innovation at the source is the initial impetus, just as Web 2.0 has shaken global change.

So where is the "new energy" technology 2.0? Countless eyes once again focused on the “Silicon Valley”, which is famous for its IT technology innovations, and is currently seeing breakthrough technologies for finding “new energy” into the real industry.

Not long ago, a senior media person wrote after visiting the Silicon Valley in the US after the financial crisis: “In the days I spent in Silicon Valley, I could strongly feel that even if the economy is still in winter, even if many companies in Silicon Valley go bankrupt, layoffs, and unemployment The rate has exceeded 10% in April (above the average level of the unemployment rate in the United States), but Silicon Valley is still struggling to lead the industry. In addition to this year's hot Twitter, selling Kindle these related to Web2.0 products With the model, the most active industrial nerve in Silicon Valley is new energy."

I do not know if it is not a coincidence, Silicon Valley in California has a unique geographical conditions, abundant sunshine and wind supply, have become the "new energy" technology in the wind energy and experimental superior choice. Therefore, following the IT technology, it still continues to innovate in the United States industrial innovation. In the new energy industry in several hot areas: such as biomass energy, smart grid, electric vehicles, etc., Silicon Valley's new companies emerge one after another.

Currently there are projects that have been watched by the venture capital market. Some media claimed that the LS9 company in Silicon Valley in the United States has already received wind investment. Their technique is to genetically modify a single-cell industrial yeast and feed it on agricultural waste such as crushed wood or wheat stalks so that it can secrete oil. The company’s employees called this revolutionary R & D play "oil 2.0".

The bacteria is actually a single-cell industrial yeast. A yeast is only one billionth of the size of an ant. Company researchers said: "In 5 to 7 years ago, this process would take several months and cost hundreds of thousands of dollars. Now it only takes a few weeks and the cost is about $20,000."

Some scientific journals commented that the future “new energy” technology is not just a competition between countries but a competition between man and nature. It seems that in the long run, biomass energy is the commanding height of the “new energy” revolutionary technology. However, whether or not it can produce the effect of "stirring up" the economy in recent years, the world remains to be seen.

The dynamism derived from this technology research and development has also affected other aspects in the United States, including corporate planning. Interestingly, at the end of 2008, Google, which had benefited from IT**, also announced that it had entered “new energy” investment. When it comes to the reasons for doing so, Google said it was seeking more effective ways to provide power to its global data center. For the sake of reducing the cost of energy use in the future, the company's own research and development of “new energy” revolutionary technology can be regarded as “innovation” beyond imagination.

"Energy" politics is different from the simple environment of scientific and technological innovation, and the political and diplomatic structure about to be triggered by "new energy" will face more variables.

In early April of this year, Zhu Xiwen, Zachariah, editor-in-chief of the US News Weekly, former president of the House of Representatives, Gingrich, and others wrote articles in Newsweek, calling on the United States to “give up oil” and “hold its own energy fate. ".

In fact, the Obama administration has introduced the concept of “new energy” in such a high-profile manner that, besides economic reasons, has also originated from the passive “oil politics” of the United States. The current energy use in the United States has far exceeded the amount it can supply. At present, fuel consumption is 16 million barrels per day. The shortage mainly depends on oil imports and natural gas. The current shortage is three times that of the 1970s.

The United States has invested a great deal of financial, human, and material resources in the Iraq war that has lasted for six years, largely to capture the "right to control oil" in the Middle East. The Obama administration, which changed its predecessor government policy and conducted "changes" as its slogan, advocated that the United States withdraw its troops from Iraq while arguing that the U.S. should vigorously develop new energy technologies. This means that both the palliative and the permanent cure should be a significant reduction of the United States' non-renewable petrochemical energy for the future. The degree of dependence will occupy the initiative of new energy resources, reduce the influence and constraints of the “oil politics” factor in US foreign policy, and better safeguard the interests of the United States.

Dr. He Ping, the chairman of the International China Environmental Protection Association who has long been engaged in the study of environmental protection and energy issues and an overseas special representative of the fifth session of the Tenth National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, believes that once the United States’ dependence on the Middle East’s oil is significantly reduced, the world’s geopolitical structure It is also possible that changes will follow. The United States will also shift its diplomatic and military priorities.

In addition, the United States' "new energy" policy also contains political wrestles in Europe.

Before the Obama administration took office, the United States did not lag behind in the research and development of new energy technologies. However, in the process of industrialization, it started later than the EU countries. EU countries have invested heavily in the development and utilization of new energy sources, and their related industrialization technologies have ranked among the top in the world. Using its relative advantages, the EU has vigorously promoted the global carbon dioxide emission control process.

Experts with international issues pointed out that once an emission reduction framework is formed, it will surely impose a strict quantitative limit on global carbon dioxide emissions, which will surely affect the overall size of the global economy. The carbon dioxide emission right may become an economically-developed right and may become an internationally accepted currency unit, thereby resisting the dollar in the international monetary system. At present, the only international carbon dioxide emissions trading market is established in Europe, and the EU has gained more and more prominent international discourse rights.

At present, fossil fuels, which constitute the main source of greenhouse gases, account for 85% of the U.S. energy mix. The United States is unavoidably caught up in the European diplomatic negotiations by the European Union.

There are also views that the Obama administration's attempt to launch new energy industry development is the initiative for the EU to compete for this future "energy exchange" construction. This is a game in the financial sector.

These are the speculations of some financial history observers. More realistically, China will now face the potential of international climate diplomacy. At present, the more operational approach is that in the future, Europe and the United States are likely to join hands to use carbon emissions as an excuse to impose additional tariffs on Chinese exports. Due to the excessive consumption of traditional energy such as coal and petroleum, China’s average per capita CO2 emissions have exceeded the world average, which has also led to the internationalization of the United States and Europe and even some developing countries to require China to undertake more emission reduction obligations. The voice is getting higher and higher. This has also become an urgent reason why China needs to advance the development of new energy technologies.

China's strategy along with the introduction of the "New Energy Industry Plan" recently drafted by the National Energy Administration also marks China's high profile announcement of the full development of "new energy." From the government's intentions, there are more strategic considerations based on reality.

It is undeniable fact that in recent years, China has been looking for non-renewable energy sources such as oil and coal in the international market. It has used huge diplomatic resources and has also invested considerable reserves, which has made China's marginal cost of obtaining energy from abroad. It's getting more and more expensive. The "new energy" is mostly renewable energy, and it is a good way for internalization to solve this problem.

Second, it was due to concerns about the renewed rise in international crude oil prices. Unlike Europe and the United States, because of the long history of oil self-sufficiency, China has not been hit by two oil crises in the 1970s. Whether it is enterprises or residents, there is a lack of intuitive understanding of the importance of reducing energy dependence. The crazy rise in international oil prices in 2008 undoubtedly gave China a great psychological impact.

Therefore, under the trend of adapting to the rise of the global "new energy" industry, China has also been forced to start a large-scale promotion of the "new energy" industry due to international "emission reduction" pressure and internal demand for economic growth.

At present, the cutting-edge "new energy" technology proposed at the beginning of this paper is produced in the cross-section of life sciences and physical chemistry. However, such frontier research is still far from the "systematic" research stage in China. Few private capitals are interested in. Only large-scale state-owned enterprises such as COFCO and CNPC (13.99,-0.05,-0.36%) have some research and development projects.

The smart grid mentioned in China's "New Energy Industry Planning" still has a long way to go to bring about reforms initiated between the launch of the smart grid and the transformation of traditional grids.

Therefore, some midstream and downstream manufacturing industries in the solar and wind energy industries that do not involve core technologies have developed rapidly in China. In just a few years, the industry has caused concern over overcapacity. Taking the polysilicon required by the “solar energy” industry as an example, the concept stock is currently fiercely hyped, but in fact, with the private capital’s frenzied investment in polysilicon in the past two years, polysilicon production capacity has exceeded demand. This made the policy development department somewhat unpredictable.

Since the end of 2008, the overall "new energy" sector has risen sharply under the dual effects of liquidity promotion and policy stimulus, with a relative increase of 129% at the bottom. Capital investment in this area is also active, and it also saw the end of "new energy." It will change the long-term future of existing energy supply.

However, in the second quarter of 2009, the "bubble" of the "new energy" sector began to surface. China's photovoltaic industry and wind power manufacturing are undergoing industrial adjustment, and the industry's difficulties are beginning to show.

Xie Guozhong, an independent economist, recently expressed calmly in an interview that some industries of “new energy” in China are currently not ideal in the short term. He believes that now mainly rely on financial subsidies. Whether it is solar energy or wind power generation, it is not stable. The demand for power grids is extremely high and can only be considered as a "gap product."

At present, the future development of wind energy and solar energy in China still needs a strong government promotion. For the photovoltaic industry, the "PV rooftop project" issued by the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Construction in March is a landmark document. It is expected that the number of projects currently reported will exceed 500 MW, and may even exceed 1 GW. Local governments have also introduced measures to support the development of the photovoltaic industry. The Ministry of Finance will implement the “Golden Sun” project and adopt a financial subsidy to accelerate the launch of the domestic photovoltaic power generation market.

However, in fact, among many “new energy” technologies, China’s most practical practice at present is the clean use of coal. In an interview with a CBN reporter, many energy experts proposed that China currently relies on coal for 70%. If the “catch” technology for coal combustion emissions is put into place, it can reduce a lot of carbon emissions, and at the same time use coal resources efficiently. China currently meets the most practical technical needs.

Unlike the popularization of wind energy and solar energy, coal capture technology is not well-known to the general public. Shenyinuoguo's latest "In-depth study on clean coal power generation industry" pointed out that in the medium and long term, China's coal-based energy structure is unlikely to fundamentally change, improve coal utilization efficiency, reduce coal pollutants and carbon emissions, The development of clean coal power generation technology is of strategic importance.

The thoughts disclosed by Zhu Xiwen’s researcher, a Chinese energy group, of the US Department of Energy, who was interviewed by the Chinese media in the United States not long ago, are quite representative, providing a cool idea for the current development of “new energy” in China.

He believes that the most practical and important part of China’s energy use is not the development of alternative energy sources, nor the pursuit of new technologies, but energy conservation and emission reduction, improving the efficiency of existing energy use, improving the environmental protection regulatory system, and investing in human resources. Software and management.

Perhaps when the wave of “new energy” investments and sought-after enthusiasm retreats, the technology that really takes root will gradually appear, and the road to “new energy” in China will gradually become clear.

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