“The current price of PV modules is still going down.†Wang Yichao, chief strategy officer of Yingli Green Energy (YGE.NYSE) recently told the reporter of the “First Financial Daily†that some companies now report low prices and the next stage Whether or not it will stabilize depends on some changes in Germany’s policies.
Wang Yi-chao said that the current price reduction of PV modules has slowed down compared with the previous period. Some large manufacturers offer at 0.95 to 1 Euro/Watt, and some small factories reduce the price to 0.8 Euro. However, from Yingli's own point of view, the stock clearance is still relatively fast.
It is an indisputable fact that the entire market price of the entire photovoltaic industrial chain has fallen. The Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) solar value chain index shows that, as of now, the spot price of solar grade polysilicon has fallen by 28% month-on-month to US$53.4/kg, and the price of 6-inch polycrystalline silicon wafers has dropped by 23% in June to US$2.39/ The new low of the chip, the polysilicon battery price of the lower reaches is reduced by 15% to 0.92 dollars / watt. Although the index shows that PV module prices only fell by 6.5% (up to US$1.68/W) on a monthly basis, Wang Yi-chao revealed that if the Euro is converted into US dollars, the module price has actually dropped to 1.3~1.35 USD/W. . Zou Hui, a researcher at Orient Securities, said that monthly prices for component prices have fallen less, but also because the first three to four months of the first half of the year have fallen a lot, while the upstream polysilicon products began to decline overall in early May. If the comparison is based on the decline in the first half (5 and a half months), the component prices have fallen by more than 30%.
Wang Yichao said whether the price of PV modules will continue to fall in the second half of the year depends on an important factor, the German electricity price subsidy reduction plan. The original German government planned to reduce the electricity price subsidies for rooftop power stations and ground power stations in July and August, but the implementation time of the policy may be postponed. Some media reports said that from March to May this year, the country’s new photovoltaic installations were less than 1GW. As a result, government officials are worried that if the two subsidy reduction plans in the middle of the year are carried out again, they will form a new blow to the weak photovoltaic industry.
In general, the PV installations from March to May will become an important reference for the installation volume for the whole year. During this period, the weather is not hot, the workers' work efficiency is high, and some of the project delivery delays at the beginning of the year are also concentrated. . In the first half of this year, Germany’s overall installed capacity was less than 3.5 megawatts, which was lower than market expectations. If the government continues to shelved the electricity price reduction plan in the second half of the year, it may stabilize the current decline in PV module prices. In 2010, the global PV market increased by 15.8 GW, with an annual growth rate of more than 100%, while Germany's PV installed capacity increased by 6.7 GW.
However, some industry players are also optimistic about the lower prices of PV modules. Yingli CFO Li Zongwei believes that even if the current price is not high, the overseas power plant project investment return rate can still be maintained at about 8% to 10%, which is already a good return. However, Wang also said that the German government will take a step-by-step step. Assuming that the price of battery modules will increase, the government will continue to implement the cut-rate tariff regulation. “If some of these regulations are introduced at some time in the second half of the year, the battery components are very May fall again."
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